拯救还是毁灭——美国中央情报局海外干预行为的经济影响  

To Save or to Destroy: The Impact of CIA Overseas Interventions on Economic Performance of the Intervened Countries

作　　者：谢建国 陈昆 张晓磊 Xie Jianguo;Chen Kun;Zhang Xiaolei(the Yangtze River Delta Economics and Social Development Research Center of Nanjing University;School of Business,Nanjing University;the School of International Economics and Business,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]南京大学长江三角洲经济社会发展研究中心 [2]南京大学商学院 [3]南京财经大学国际经贸学院,南京210093

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2022年第8期83-105,157,158,共25页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“基于要素生产与要素创造的大国贸易利益分配:逻辑、动力与测度研究”(项目批准号:72073062)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：美国中央情报局打着“民主自由”和“推动地区繁荣”的旗号对其他国家进行了长期、大规模的海外干预,其手段包括操纵舆论、挑起宗教种族冲突以及培养亲美政治势力等。事实上,美国中央情报局的海外干预行为不仅未能“推动地区繁荣”,反而恶化了被干预国的经济状况。根据披露的最新(1946—1995年)海外干预行动数据,美国中央情报局海外干预行为会对被干预国的经济增长产生显著的负面冲击,且这种负面冲击具有一定的时滞性,平均会持续6年。影响机制检验结果显示:美国中央情报局海外干预行为会通过减少被干预国资本和劳动力投入,并逐渐拉低被干预国全要素生产率的路径,危害被干预国的经济增长。从被干预国的异质性特征看,同发达国家相比,美国中央情报局海外干预行为对发展中国家经济增长产生的负面影响更为严重;与“集权国家”相比,“民主国家”受到美国中央情报局海外干预后,经济增长复苏所需要的时间更长。分析结果表明,披着“推动地区繁荣与稳定”外衣进行海外干预的美国中央情报局实际上是世界繁荣与稳定最大的破坏者。Under the banner of “exporting democracy and freedom” and “promoting regional prosperity”,the US Central Intelligence Agency(CIA) has carried out largescale overseas interventions in other countries for a long time. Its methods include manipulating public opinion, provoking religious and ethnic conflicts, cultivating proAmerican political forces and so on. However,this paper finds that the overseas interventions by the CIA not only failed to promote regional prosperity,but worsened the economic performance of the intervened countries. Based on the latest(1946-1995)overseas intervention data disclosed by the CIA,this paper empirically studied the impact of its overseas interventions on the economic performance of the intervened countries. The results show that the CIA’s overseas interventions had a significant negative impact on the economic growth of the intervened countries,and this negative impact had a certain time lag,which would last for 6 years on average. The overseas intervention of the CIA harmed the economic growth of the intervened countries by reducing their capital and labor input and gradually pulling down their total factor productivity. From the perspective of the heterogeneity of the intervened countries,the developing countries suffered a more seriously negative impact compared with the developed countries;Compared with the centralized countries,the democratic countries took longer for economic growth to recover after the overseas intervention of the CIA. The results show that the overseas interventions of CIA,under the cloak of “promoting regional prosperity and stability ”, has in fact become the biggest destroyer of world prosperity and stability.

关 键 词：民主输出 美国中央情报局 海外干预 经济表现 政治制度环境 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]