双边货币互换能够推动人民币国际化吗——兼论汇率市场化的影响  

Can Bilateral Local Currency Swap Promote RMB Internationalization——Concurrently Discuss the Impact of Exchange Rate Marketization

作　　者：宋科[1,2] 朱斯迪 夏乐 SONG Ke;ZHU Si-di;XIA Le(School of Finance,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;China Financial Policy Research Center,Renmin Universily of China,Beijing 100872,China;International Monetary Institute,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Economics,Renmin-University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学财政金融学院 [2]中国财政金融政策研究中心、国际货币研究所 [3]中国人民大学经济学院 [4]中国人民大学国际货币研究所

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2022年第7期25-43,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“现代服务业共性关键技术研发及应用示范”重点专项“贸易金融业务流程再造和标准规范体系研究”(批准号2019YFB1404902)。

摘　　要：在“十四五”期间稳慎推进人民币国际化过程中充分发挥双边货币互换作用具有重大意义。本文利用人民币全球跨境支付的真实交易数据研究了双边货币互换对人民币国际化的影响。研究发现:双边货币互换可以通过提供人民币流动性、提升外界对人民币的信心以及增强人民币网络外部性等渠道推动人民币国际化。异质性分析表明,对于“一带一路”沿线国家、与中国贸易往来密切的国家而言,双边货币互换对人民币国际化的推动效果更强。从货币职能角度看,双边货币互换的影响主要体现在交易媒介和计价单位职能上,而对价值贮藏职能没有显著影响。这符合通过构建双边货币互换网络推动人民币在国际贸易投资方面广泛使用,进而提升人民币在全球范围内承担交易媒介和计价单位职能的基本政策逻辑。价值贮藏作为更高层次职能,双边货币互换安排的签订尚无法显著提升其职能发挥。进一步地,本文发现,汇率市场化可以通过“信号效应”增强双边货币互换对人民币国际化的推动作用。本文拓展和丰富了关于双边货币互换的研究,为在新一轮高水平开放进程中协调推进人民币国际化、汇率市场化和资本账户开放提供了重要的理论依据与政策启示。In the process of prudently promoting RMB internationalization during the 14th Five-Year Plan period,it is of great significance whether the role of bilateral local currency swap can be fully utilized. Based on the global crossborder payment information of RMB, this paper investigates the effect of bilateral local currency swap on RMB internationalization. The results are as follows:Bilateral local currency swap can promote RMB internationalization by providing RMB liquidity,boosting global market confidence in RMB,and enhancing RMB network externalities. The results of the heterogeneity analysis show that bilateral local currency swap has stronger effect on RMB internationalization for the“Belt and Road”countries and countries with closer trade ties with China. From the perspective of the three major currency functions,the impact of bilateral local currency swap is mainly reflected in the medium-of-trade and unit-ofvalue functions,while there is no significant impact on the store-of-value function. This is in line with the underlying policy logic of promoting the widespread use of the RMB in international trade and investment through the construction of bilateral currency swap networks,thereby enhancing RMB’s medium-of-trade and unit-of-value functions. The store-ofvalue is a higher-level function and bilateral local currency swap cannot significantly enhance its role. This paper finds that exchange rate marketization can enhance the driving effect of bilateral local currency swap on RMB internationalization through the“signal effect”. This paper expands the research on bilateral local currency swap,and provides important theoretical basis and policy insights for further coordinating the internationalization of RMB,exchange rate marketization and capital account opening in the process of high-level opening-up.

关 键 词：双边货币互换 人民币国际化 货币职能 汇率市场化 

分 类 号：F120[经济管理—世界经济]