塞西执政以来埃及与以色列准联盟关系的发展  

An Analysis of the Reasons for the Development of Egypt-Israel Relations to Quasi-Alliance After Abdel Fattah el-Sisi Came to Power

作　　者：潘基宏 王昕[1] PAN Jihong;WANG Xin(Luoyang Division,Information Engineering University)

机构地区：[1]战略支援部队信息工程大学洛阳校区,洛阳471003

出　　处：《阿拉伯世界研究》2022年第3期110-132,159,160,共25页Arab World Studies

摘　　要：塞西执政后,埃及和以色列以安全合作为基石,密切战略协作,构建起具有准联盟基本特征的新型双边关系。埃以关系能够超越冷和平、向准联盟发展具有复杂的动因,它源于体系层面、国家层面与个人层面的“变量聚合”。首先,中东体系结构调整导致地区无政府状态加剧,中东多国形成相互交叉的对抗性政治集团,为埃以拓展关系创造了客观条件。其次,埃以安全利益与政治利益的最大公约数不断扩大,阿拉伯民族主义的影响日渐式微,为两国关系向准联盟发展提供了根本动力。最后,埃及领导人塞西的个性特点以及作为特权阶层的高级军官的群体认知,为两国关系的调整提供了稳定的政策保证。埃以作为中东地区核心国家,两国关系的新发展将进一步加速“新中东”的形成。After Abdel Fattah el-Sisi came to power,Egypt and Israel carried out a series of close strategic cooperation in the security field as the cornerstone,and the two countries built a new bilateral relationship,which has the basic characteristics of a quasi-alliance and belongs to the weak quasi-alliance in its category.The Egyptian-Israeli relationship can transcend cold peace and develop toward a quasi-alliance with complex reasons,which stem from the "convergence of variables" at the levels of system,country and individual.First of all,the structural adjustment of the Middle East system has intensified the regional anarchy,and many countries in the Middle East have formed intersecting and antagonistic political blocs,creating objective conditions for the new development of Egypt-Israel relations;Secondly,the greatest common divisor of security and political interests between Egypt and Israel continues to expand,and the influence of Arab nationalism gradually wanes,which provides the fundamental impetus for the development of bilateral relations towards the quasialliance;Finally,the personal characteristics of Egyptian leader el-Sisi and the group recognition of the privileged class-senior military officers provide a stable policy guarantee for the adjustment of the relationship between the two countries.As Egypt and Israel are the core countries in the Middle East,the new development of their bilateral relations will further accelerate the formation of the "New Middle East".

关 键 词：塞西 埃及 以色列 准联盟 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]