税收征管体制改革与社保基金征缴收入  

Reform of Tax Collection and Management System and Social Security Fund Income

作　　者：李连友[1] 黄保聪 席鹏辉[2] LI Lianyou;HUANG Baocong;XI Penghui(Hunan University,Changsha,China;Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学公共管理学院,410079 [2]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院,100006

出　　处：《经济学动态》2022年第6期80-96,共17页Economic Perspectives

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“积极老龄化的公共政策与法治问题研究”(19ZDA158)。

摘　　要：社保基金的可持续发展是社会各界长期关注的热点。本文基于所得税征管体制改革的准自然实验,利用中国工业企业数据,构建断点回归模型实证评估了税收征管对社保基金收入的影响及潜在机制。研究发现:税收征管改革对社保基金收入产生了显著和稳健的挤出效应。机制分析表明,税收征管改革通过“税费替代效应”和“缴费基数效应”降低企业的税收规避和社保缴费基数,从而挤出社保缴费。在社保部门征收和税务部门非全责征收地区的企业以及融资约束较高的非国有企业和小规模企业中,这种挤出效应更明显。本文发现对于理解税收征管改革的外溢效应以及优化税费征管体制改革具有重要启示,应积极稳妥地推进社保由税务部门全责征收,及时关注改革进程中企业现金流和融资约束的变化及影响,为政策落地和提质增效提供基础保障。The sustainable development of social security fund has long been a hot issue concerned by all parts of society. Based on the natural experiment of the reform of income tax collection and management system, this paper uses the data of Chinese industrial enterprises to construct a discontinuity regression model to empirically evaluate the impact of tax collection and management on the income of social security funds and examine the potential mechanism. The study finds that the reform of tax collection and management had a significant and steady crowding out effect on the income of social security fund. Mechanism analysis shows that the reform of tax collection and management has reduced the tax evasion and social security payment base of enterprises through the “tax substitution effect” and “payment base effect”, thus squeezing out social security payment. Moreover, this crowding out effect is more obvious for enterprises in areas where social security departments and tax departments are not fully responsible for collection, as well as for non-state-owned enterprises and small-scale enterprises with high financing constraints. The findings of this paper have important implications for understanding the spillover effect of tax collection and management reform and promoting the reform of tax collection and management system. We should actively and steadily promote the full responsibility collection of social security by the tax department, pay timely attention to the changes and impacts of enterprise cash flow and financing constraints in the reform process, and provide basic guarantee for the implementation of policies and the improvement of quality and efficiency.

关 键 词：税收征管 社保基金收入 社保缴费 税费替代 断点回归 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学] F842.61F425