城市资源配置、人口集聚与房地产价格上涨——来自全国95个城市的经验证据  

Urban Resource Allocation,Population Agglomeration and Rising Real Estate Prices——An Empirical Evidence from 95 Cities in China

作　　者：刘凤根 王一丁 颜建军 张敏 LIU Feng-gen;WANG Yi-ding;YAN Jian-jun;ZHANG Min(School of Finance,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,China;School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工商大学财政金融学院,湖南长沙410205 [2]湖南工商大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2022年第7期31-46,共16页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助基础科学中心项目(72088101);国家社科基金资助一般项目(18BJY228);湖南省研究生科研创新重点项目(CX20211099)。

摘　　要：城市资源配置水平的差异引致人口流动和人口集聚是中国房地产价格上涨的基础性因素。本文通过构建一个比较静态模型,首先探究了城市资源配置、人口集聚影响房地产价格的理论机理;其次,通过构建房地产价格上涨趋势指数和城市资源配置指数,利用2009-2018年中国95个城市的年度面板数据,实证研究城市资源配置水平、人口集聚对房地产价格上涨的影响机制。研究结果表明:城市资源配置水平和人口集聚对房地产价格上涨均产生了显著的正向影响效应;人口集聚在城市资源配置影响房地产价格上涨中起到中介作用,城市资源配置水平越高,越能吸引人口向该城市迁徙并形成人口集聚,导致房地产价格上涨,且因城市的资源配置层级、行政级别和地理区位呈现出显著的异质性。该研究结论为中国房地产价格有效调控提供了新的经验证据。Differences in the level of urban resource allocation lead to population mobility and population agglomeration,which is a main factor for the rise of China’s real estate prices.From the perspective of the natural attributes and basic functions of commercial housing,the growth of urban population also plays a role in promoting the rise of real estate prices.Higher levels of public resources motivate the population to move from low resource allocation areas to the high allocation area.The resulting resource competition generated in the process of population agglomeration will inevitably lead to increasing real estate prices in the area.Under the background of increasing domestic and international uncertainties and the downward pressure on the macro economy,this paper reveals the formation mechanism of real estate price changes and the underlying driving factors which play an important role in the implementation of China’s current real estate market policies aimed at stabilizing land prices,housing prices,and expectations and effective regulation of real estate prices.A comparative static model is constructed to explore the theoretical mechanism of the impact of urban resource allocation and population agglomeration on the rise of urban real estate prices.Based on the urban resource allocation index and real estate price increase index calculated by using the relevant data of 95 cities in China from 2009 to 2018,a panel model is used to empirically study the impact of urban resource allocation and population agglomeration on urban real estate price rise.The research results show that:(1)urban resource allocation and population agglomeration both have a significant positive effect on the rise of real estate prices.(2)population agglomeration plays an intermediary role in the impact of urban resource allocation on real estate price increases.That is,the higher the level of urban resource allocation,the more it can attract people to migrate to the city and thus form population agglomeration,which will eventually le

关 键 词：城市资源配置 人口集聚 房地产价格 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] C924.2[社会学—人口学]