基于成本优化的中国省际碳减排目标分配  

Disaggregating China’s National Carbon-reduction Target Based on Optimizing the Total Cost of Emission Reduction

作　　者：杜娟[1] 潘盟 汪云峰[1] DU Juan;PAN Meng;WANG Yun-feng(School of Economics and Management,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2022年第7期252-263,共12页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：上海市“科技创新行动计划”社会发展科技攻关项目(20dz1201500)。

摘　　要：中国政府大力提倡生态文明建设,重要措施之一是建立全国碳交易市场。如何将全国碳减排目标分摊到各省区从而确定初始排放配额,则是确保碳交易市场有序运行的前提和基础。在效率分析的理论框架下,对每一省级区域拟合出其GDP损失与二氧化碳减排量之间的回归方程。将减排引起的GDP下降视为减排成本,提出一种优化全国整体减排成本的规划方法,实现对碳减排总目标的省际分配、制定区域低碳发展目标。分摊结果显示了方法的有效性和易操作性,表明不同区域承担与其经济发展、产业结构、能源消费等现状相符合的减排任务;逐步回归分析下,GDP、人均GDP、二氧化碳排放量、第二产业比重和第三产业比重五个因素对于减排目标分配结果均具有显著影响。In order to take an active role in fighting greenhouse effect and global warming,China is vigorously promoting the ecological civilization construction and a new mode of harmonious development between man and nature.One of the important measures is to establish the national market for trading carbon emissions.How to equitably allocate the national carbon reduction target at the provincial level is one of the key factors to ensure the orderly running of the carbon trading market.Under the frame of efficiency analysis,directional distance function(DDF)is used to assess for each provincial region the quantitative trend between its GDP loss and carbon emission reduction.Based on the fitted regression equations,the GDP decreases directly caused by emission reductions can be calculated and viewed as the costs of cutting carbon.Then a programming method is developed to disaggregate China’s national reduction target of carbon dioxide emissions at the provincial level by minimizing total reduction cost.The results indicate that different provincial regions tend to share different levels of reduction target depending on their economic conditions,industrial structures and energy structures.All 30 provincial regions are divided into four clusters by economic development and emissions level.Provinces belonging to the same cluster exhibit similar trend in carbon reduction.Detailed discussions are provided for each cluster on the economic and industrial status,and on how to achieve sustainable development.Under the stepwise regression analysis,three factors,namely GDP,per capita GDP and carbon dioxide emissions have a significant positive impact on the allocation results,while the second industry proportion and the third industry proportion influence them in a negative way.

关 键 词：二氧化碳减排 排放配额 减排成本 方向性距离函数 数据包络分析 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学] X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]