考虑不可分离非期望产出的城市效率及其时空演变——基于东北地区收缩城市的实证  

Urban Efficiency,Spatial Spillover and Spatial Heterogeneity Considering Inseparable Undesirable Output:An Empirical Study Based on Shrinking Cities in Northeast China

作　　者：高景鑫 曾峥 柯燕燕[2] 宋金波[1] GAO Jing-xin;ZENG Zheng;KE Yan-yan;SONG Jin-bo(School of Economics and Management,Dalian University of Technology,Dalian 116024,China;College of Harbour and Coastal Engineering,Jimei University,Xiamen 361021,China)

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学经济管理学院,辽宁大连116024 [2]集美大学港口与海岸工程学院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《系统工程》2022年第4期64-74,共11页Systems Engineering

基　　金：福建省科技厅创新战略研究项目(2021R0067);集美大学校启动金项目(ZQ2020037);中央高校基本科研业务费(DUT20RC(3)061)。

摘　　要：“为了增长而规划”的城市发展范式与人口流动加速、人口出生率持续走低的矛盾造就了我国的城市收缩现象。城市收缩研究契合新时代背景下的城镇化目标,是有效治理诸多城市问题、促进城镇化的高质量可持续发展的基本途径。本文基于三阶段不可分离SBM模型、空间杜宾模型SDM以及时空地理加权回归GTWR模型开展了东北地区收缩城市效率的量化计算及其影响因素作用机理分析。结果表明:东北地区24个收缩城市中,大部分县级市城市效率达到0.5到0.8,表明这部分城市对资源的吸收转化能力较高,城市发展受限于其外部的有限资源无法支撑城市的发展;与东北地区县级城市形成对比的是,90%以上地级市城市效率分布在0.1到0.4之间,这部分城市的资源优于县级市城市,但是其对资源的吸收转化能力较弱;各项因素对东北地区城市效率的影响存在一定的空间分布规律,经济、产业、政府政策、人口消费等方面均存在较强的负向溢出效应,说明东北地区城市在这些方面尚未建立宏观的协同发展格局,无序竞争现象削弱了各城市的发展潜力。The contradiction between the urban development paradigm of “planning for growth” and the acceleration of population flow, the continuous decline of birth rate has resulted in the phenomenon of urban contraction in China. The study of urban shrinkage fits the urbanization goal in the context of the new era and is a basic way to effectively deal with many urban problems and promote high-quality and sustainable development of urbanization. Based on the three-stage inseparable SBM model, the spatial Dubin model SDM and the spatio-temporal geographic weighted regression GTWR model, this paper carries out the quantitative calculation of the shrinking city efficiency in Northeast China and the mechanism analysis of the influencing factors. Results show that among the 24 shrinking cities in the Northeast, most county-level cities have an efficiency of 0.5 to 0.8. It shows that these cities have efficiency ability to absorb and transform resources, and their development is limited by its external limited resources and cannot support the development;In contrast to the county-level cities in the east and north districts, the efficiency of more than 90% of prefecture-level cities is between 0.1 and 0.4. The resources of these cities are better than the county-level cities, but their ability to absorb and transform resources is weak and presents an inefficient state;The influence of various factors on urban efficiency in Northeast China has a certain spatial distribution law. There are strong negative spillover effects in economy, industry, government policy, population consumption, etc. It shows that the cities in the northeast region have not established a macro-cooperative development pattern in these respects, and the disordered competition has weakened the development potential of the cities.

关 键 词：城市效率 非期望产出 空间分异 溢出效应 

分 类 号：C939[经济管理—管理学]