美国对中俄实施“双遏制”战略的变化及启示  

America’s “Double Containment” Strategy against China and Russia:Changes and Enlightenment

作　　者：张文宗[1] 王靖元 Zhang Wenzong;Wang Jingyuan(the Institute for American Studies,CICIR;University of International Relations)

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院美国研究所 [2]国际关系学院

出　　处：《和平与发展》2022年第4期1-21,135,140-142,共25页Peace and Development

摘　　要：近年美国对中国和俄罗斯实施的大国竞争战略本质上属于“软遏制”,新冷战阴影笼罩着国际社会。2022年2月乌克兰危机爆发后,美国联合盟国对俄实施“硬遏制”战略,激起俄强烈反弹,双方陷入新冷战。同时,美国继续视中国为首要对手并加紧战略围堵,美国内也出现对中俄开展“双遏制”,即对两国同时采取“硬遏制”战略以发动全面新冷战的声音。本文分析认为,拜登政府目前尚无意愿和能力与中俄两国同时开展全面对抗,但防止新冷战从欧洲蔓延到亚太地区符合国际社会的共同利益。除中国的战略运筹外,美国也应该避免踩踏中国的“红线”,尤其是在台湾问题上。美国的亚洲主要盟友应该认识到新冷战对自身经济和安全利益的巨大危害,并牵制美国的极端举动。亚洲大多数国家,尤其是东盟国家坚持不选边站队的立场,对维护地区和平稳定意义重大。而西方跨国公司用好中国高水平开放政策,继续在中国与美西方之间发挥“压舱石”作用也很重要。In recent years,the major-country competition strategy pursued by the United States against China and Russia is essentially “soft containment”,and the shadow of a new cold war is hanging over the international community.After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022,the US and its allies implemented a “hard containment” strategy against Russia,thus provoking a strong backlash from Russia and plunging the two sides into a new cold war.At the same time,the United States continues to regard China as its primary adversary and steps up its strategic containment against China.There are also voices in the US of “double containment” against China and Russia,that is,“hard containment” of both China and Russia in order to launch an all-out new cold war.This article analyzes that the Biden administration does not have the will and ability to carry out a comprehensive confrontation with China and Russia at the same time,and it is in the common interests of the international community to prevent a new cold war from spreading from Europe to the Asia-Pacific region.In addition to China’s strategic planning,the US should also avoid stepping on China’s “red line”,especially on the Taiwan question.America’s major Asian allies should be well aware of the enormous harm a new cold war would do to their own economic and security interests,and rein in America’s extreme actions.The fact that most Asian countries,especially ASEAN,adhere to the position of not taking sides is of great significance to regional peace and stability.It is also important for Western multinationals to make good use of China’s high-level opening-up policy and continue to play a “ballast” role between China and the US and the West.

关 键 词：中美关系 美俄关系 俄罗斯 乌克兰危机 新冷战 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]