经济-能源-水耦合视角下黄河流域区域协同发展路径  

Path of regional coordinated development in the Yellow River Basin from the perspective of economy-energy-water nexus

作　　者：王兆华[1] 邹朋宇 李浩[1] 张斌[1] 高浚淇[2] WANG Zhaohua;ZOU Pengyu;LI Hao;Zhang Bin;GAO Junqi(School of Management and Economics,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Center for International Economic and Technological Cooperation,Ministry of Industry and Information Technology,Beijing 100846,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学管理与经济学院,北京100081 [2]工业和信息化部国际经济技术合作中心,北京100846

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2022年第8期10-19,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金专项项目“‘双碳’目标下我国‘资源-环境-经济’协同发展机制与实现路径研究”(批准号:72141302);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“‘碳中和’背景下我国典型流域‘经济-能源-水’耦合机制与政策调控研究”(批准号:72104023);教育部哲学社会科学重大课题“实现2060‘碳中和’的低成本减煤路径研究”(批准号:21JZD027)。

摘　　要：黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展是重大国家战略。水资源短缺且分布不均制约了以能源和重工业为主导的经济发展,而区域协同发展布局和产业绿色低碳转型是实现经济高质量发展的必然要求。文章在分析黄河流域社会经济发展现状、隐含能和虚拟水流动的基础上,评估了经济-能源-水耦合协调发展程度及时空演变特征,进而从经济-能源-水耦合视角提出黄河流域上中下游协同发展路径。研究结果表明:(1)黄河流域社会经济发展整体呈上游较滞后、中游在崛起、下游较发达的阶梯式分布。黄河流域区域内的生产与贸易有助于缓解河南的能源短缺问题,但加剧了宁夏和内蒙古的水资源短缺问题,而与长江中游、大西南地区的商品贸易使该问题得到缓解。(2)黄河流域经济-能源-水耦合协调发展程度呈逐步升高趋势,但仍整体偏低。其中,山东和四川耦合协调度较高,主要得益于经济发展质量和水资源利用效率较高以及可再生能源发展较快,而宁夏、山西和内蒙古由于能源清洁替代缓慢,水资源短缺问题突出,耦合协调度偏低。(3)立足优势、协同布局,上游地区应将水资源作为最大约束性指标,强化能源、交通和数字信息等基础设施互联互通,提高经济发展、技术创新和资源优化配置能力;中游地区应增强新能源开发和利用能力、加强生态环境治理与修复,加快产业低碳转型和清洁能源替代;下游地区应提升人口和产业承载能力,持续转换发展动能,持续集聚集约发展并发挥龙头带动作用。上中下游区域协同发展新格局是推动黄河流域高质量发展的重要抓手。Ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin(YRB) are major national strategies in China.The shortage and uneven distribution of water resources have restricted the economic development dominated by the energy industry and heavy industry. Regional coordinated industrial development, layout and low-carbon transformation are the inevitable requirements for realizing high-quality economic development. Based on the analysis of the current situation of social and economic development, the flow of embodied energy, and virtual water in the YRB, this article evaluated the degree of coordinated development and the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of the economy-energy-water(EEW) nexus, and then put forward the path of coordinated development in the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the YRB from the perspective of the nexus. The results showed that:(1) Intraregional trade in the YRB helped alleviate energy shortages in Henan but exacerbated water shortages in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the commodity trade with the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Southwest effectively alleviated the problem.(2) The coordinated development degree of the EEW nexus in the YRB was gradually increasing but still had a large potential to improve. Among the provinces,Shandong and Sichuan had a higher degree of coupling and coordination, mainly due to their higher-quality economic development, the large-scale employment of renewable energy, and higher efficiency of water use, while that of Ningxia, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia was relatively low because of the water shortage problem caused by the slow replacement of clean energy sources.(3) Based on the advantages and coordinated layout, areas in the upper reaches should take water resources as the most restrictive indicator, strengthen the interconnection of infrastructures such as energy, transportation, and digital information, and improve economic development, technological innovation, and resource optimization allocation capabilities;a

关 键 词：黄河流域 经济-能源-水耦合 区域协同发展 耦合协调度 提升路径 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] F224