枣庄地区气候年景特征分析  

Analysis of Annual Climate Characteristics in Zaozhuang Area

作　　者：鹿翠华 张美玲[2] 苑文华 黄燕玲 丁洁 LU Cuihua(Zaozhuang Meteorological Bureau,Zaozhuang,Shandong 277800)

机构地区：[1]枣庄市气象局,山东枣庄277800 [2]滕州市气象局,山东滕州277500

出　　处：《农业灾害研究》2022年第7期105-107,共3页Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology

摘　　要：基于枣庄地区1971—2020年5个国家气象站50年的气象数据,同时利用气候年景评估国家方法,采用线性倾向估计、累积距平、Mann-Kendal突变分析等方法,分析了枣庄地区气温、降水及相应年景指数和年景指数等级的变化特征,以及气候年景和气候年景指数变化特征。结果表明:近40年来,枣庄地区年平均气温呈升高趋势;平均气温年景指数整体为波动增强的趋势;气温年景指数等级为弱强对称分布,总体为中等略偏强。年平均降水量总体呈波动增多趋势;平均降水年景指数为极弱的减小趋势;降水年景指数突变频繁,变化趋势平缓,降水年景指数等级总体中等年份最多。平均气候年景指数为波动略强的趋势;气候年景指数等级为完美的对称分布,气候年景总体为中等,时有好、差气候年景出现,比较有利于工业和农业生产。Based on the 50 year meteorological data of five national meteorological stations in Zaozhuang area from 1971 to 2020, and using the national method of climate annual scene evaluation,the variation characteristics of temperature,precipitation, corresponding annual scene index and annual scene index grade in Zaozhuang area were analyzed by using the methods of linear tendency estimation,cumulative anomaly and Mann Kendal mutation analysis. Finally, the variation characteristics of climate annual scene and climate annual scene index in Zaozhuang area were analyzed. The results showed that the annual average temperature in Zaozhuang area had increased in recent 40 years;The annual index of average temperature fluctuates and increases as a whole;In recent 40 years, the annual temperature index of Zaozhuang area had a weak strong symmetrical distribution, which was generally medium and slightly strong. In recent 40years, the average annual precipitation in Zaozhuang area had fluctuated and increased;The average annual precipitation index showed a very weak decreasing trend;The annual precipitation index changed frequently and the change trend is gentle. The annual precipitation index grade was generally medium, and the year was the most. In recent 40 years, the average annual climate index of Zaozhuang area fluctuated slightly;The grade of climate year index was a perfect symmetrical distribution. The climate year in Zaozhuang area was generally medium, with good and bad climate years from time to time,which was more conducive to industrial and agricultural production.

关 键 词：枣庄 气温年景 降水年景 气候年景 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学]