政府投资复杂大型建设项目决策阶段风险传递研究  

Research on Risk Evolution Process in Decision-making Stage of Complex Large Construction Projects Invested by Government

作　　者：乌云娜[1,2] 董昊鑫 陶垚 陈文君[1,2] WU Yunna;DONG Haoxin;TAO Yao;CHEN Wenjun(School of Economics and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development(North China Electric Power University),Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]华北电力大学新能源电力与低碳发展研究北京市重点实验室,北京102206

出　　处：《建筑经济》2022年第9期81-88,共8页Construction Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“大数据背景下复杂大型建设项目政府投资监控机理、方法及策略研究”(19AGL027)。

摘　　要：为探究政府投资复杂大型建设项目(下称政府大型项目)决策阶段一般性风险传递路径,首先以政府大型项目决策阶段特征为出发点,基于扎根理论搭建政府大型项目决策阶段普适性风险因素层次结构模型;其次,基于复杂系统思想,运用系统动力学构建政府大型项目决策阶段一般性风险衍生模型;最后,通过统计风险反馈回路,识别政府大型项目关键风险,并提出基于反馈特征的风险管控原则,希望有助于管理人员合理防控风险。To explore the general risk transfer path in the decision-making stage of government-invested complex large-scale construction projects(hereinafter referred to as government large-scale projects),firstly,the paper constructs a general hierarchical risk factor model based on the rooting theory from the perspective of the characteristics of the decision-making stage of government large-scale projects.Then,builds a general risk derivation model of the decision-making stage of government large-scale projects using system dynamics based on the complex system idea.Finally,through counting risk feedback loops,identifies key risks of large government projects,and clarifies the principles of risk control based on feedback characteristics,hopes to helps managers to rationalize risk control.

关 键 词：政府投资 大型建设项目 风险传递 风险识别 

分 类 号：F283[经济管理—国民经济]