地质采矿条件对铁路路基沉陷预测影响研究  

Prediction of railway subgrade subsidence based on geological mining conditions

作　　者：丁一 邓念东[1] 姚婷 刘东海 尚慧[1] DING Yi;DENG Niandong;YAO Ting;LIU Donghai;SHANG Hui(College of Geology&Environment,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710054,China;Chongqing 107 Municipal Construction Engineering Co.Ltd,Chongqing 401120,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学地质与环境学院,陕西西安710054 [2]重庆一零七市政建设工程有限公司,重庆401120

出　　处：《煤炭科学技术》2022年第7期135-145,共11页Coal Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41702377);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2017M623208);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2017JQ4008)。

摘　　要：为保障郭庄煤矿铁路专用线的安全运营,从地质采矿条件的角度出发对工作面开采引起的铁路路基沉陷进行了稳态预计。首先,构建了地质采矿条件与概率积分预计参数之间的GA-BP神经网络模型,利用收集的地表移动观测站数据对其进行训练之后,从网络的误差分析、数据的拟合度、测试结果以及泛化性能4个方面对模型的精度及可靠度分别进行了检验,结果表明:网络的收敛速度较快,模型的平均相对误差小于3%,对数据的拟合程度大于0.8,泛化性能指数在0.8以上,模型预测精度较高,且具有良好的预测能力。其次,依据研究区各工作面的地质采矿条件参数,运用该模型对其开采沉陷的概率积分预计参数进行了求取,将S3-13工作面的开采沉陷预计结果与实测数据进行对比发现:两者的差值平方和为6.21×10^(5),中误差为104.38 mm,为观测点最大下沉值的2.60%,预测结果精度较高,说明得到的概率积分预计参数具有一定的可靠性。最后,通过稳态预计得到了铁路路基的最终下沉等值线及下沉曲线,预计铁路沿线最大下沉值达4261 mm,并且有2个路段会形成大于4000 mm的下沉盆地,铁路将发生严重的变形破坏。研究成果可为后续工作面的开采以及铁路的动态变形预测和维修治理提供理论基础。In order to ensure the safe operation of the special railway line in Guozhuang coal mine,the steady-state prediction of the railway subgrade subsidence caused by working face mining was carried out from the perspective of geological mining conditions.Firstly,a GA-BP neural network model between geological mining conditions and the predicted parameters of probability integral was established.After training using the collected data from the surface mobile observatory station,the accuracy and reliability of the model were tested from four aspects:network error analysis,data fitting degree,test results and generalization performance.The results showed thatthe convergence rate of the network is fast,the average relative error of the model is less than 3%,the fitting degree of the data is more than 0.8,and the generalization performance index is more than 0.8.The model has high prediction accuracy and good prediction ability.Secondly,based on the parameters of geological mining conditions of each working face in the study area,the model is used to calculate the predicted parameters of mining subsidence.By comparing the estimated mining subsidence results of S3-13 working face with the measured data,it is found that:the sum of squares of the differences between the two values is 6.21×10^(5),and the median error was 104.38 mm,which is 2.60% of the maximum subsidence value of the observation point.The high accuracy of the prediction results indicated that the obtained probability integral predicted parameters have certain reliability.Finally,the final subsidence contour line and subsidence curve of the railway subgrade are estimated through the steady-state prediction.It is estimated that the maximum subsidence value along the railway line is 4261mm,and two sections will form a subsidence basin larger than 4000 mm.The railway will be severely deformed and damaged.The research results can provide a theoretical basis for the mining of the subsequent working face and the prediction and maintenance of the dynamic deformation

关 键 词：地表沉陷 沉陷预测 铁路压煤 地质采矿条件 

分 类 号：TD325[矿业工程—矿井建设]