基于Copula函数的汉江流域降水径流丰枯遭遇研究  

Using Copula Model to Analyze Consecutive Wetting-drying Occurrence in Rainfall-runoff in Hanjiang Basin

作　　者：王飞宇[1] 张彦[2] 王偲[3] 应其霖 陈婷 于飞龙[3] WANG Feiyu;ZHANG Yan;WANG Cai;YING Qilin;CHEN Ting;YU Feilong(Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Farmland Irrigation Research Institute,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Xinxiang 453002,China;Jiangsu Province Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation Bureau,Nanjing 210009,China;State Grid Luyuan hydropower company,Shenyang 110170,China;State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程院重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国农业科学院农田灌溉研究所,河南新乡453002 [3]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,南京210009 [4]国网东北分部绿源水力发电公司,沈阳110170 [5]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2022年第8期95-105,共11页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：美丽中国生态文明建设科技工程专项资助项目(XDA23040304);河南省自然科学基金项目(212300410310);河南省科技攻关项目(212102311144);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项项目(FIRI2022-01)。

摘　　要：【目的】汉江作为长江最大的支流,探究其流域内降水径流丰枯遭遇风险对汉江流域水资源科学管理具有重要意义。【方法】基于汉江流域4个水文站径流及其控制流域的降水数据,利用二维和三维Copula函数构建降水径流丰枯遭遇联合分布模型,分析了流域降水径流丰枯遭遇风险概率。【结果】汉江上游石泉站和白河站径流量及控制流域降水量间的丰枯同步概率较大,分别为73.06%和73.45%,中游黄家港站丰枯异步概率最大,达45.21%;汉江上中游石泉站、白河站和黄家港站丰枯同步概率呈现出同枯>同丰>同平,而下游仙桃站为同平>同枯>同丰。汉江上中游石泉站、白河站和黄家港站组合下控制流域降水量间的丰枯同步概率较大,为72.88%;流域内不同站点组合下控制流域降水量的丰枯同步概率呈同平>同枯>同丰,径流量的丰枯同步概率均呈同枯>同丰>同平。【结论】汉江流域上游径流量及控制流域降水量的丰枯一致性较好,下游的丰枯一致性相对较好,而中游的丰枯一致性较差;不同站点组合下控制流域降水量的丰枯具有相对较好的一致性,而径流量的丰枯同步、丰枯异步概率差异性不显著。【Objective】Hanjiang is the largest tributary of the Yangtze River.The purpose of this paper is to analyze the consecutive occurrence of wetting-drying in rainfall and runoff in order to improve water resource management in this basin.【Method】The analysis was based on runoff data measured from four hydrological stations and precipitation measured from a control catchment in the basin.The joint distribution of wetting-drying for rainfall and runoff was constructed using the two-and three-dimensional Copula functions.The risk probabilities of occurrence of wetting-drying for rainfall and runoff were calculated.【Result】The probability of consecutive occurrence of wetting and drying between runoff and rainfall at Shiquan and Baihe stations in the upper reaches in the basin were higher,being 73.06%and 73.45%respectively.The probability of consecutive occurence of wetting and drying at Huangjiagang station in the middle reaches of basins was the highest,reaching 45.21%.The probabilities of consecutive occurrence of wetting and drying at Shiquan,Baihe and Huangjiagang stations in the upper and middle reaches of basin was ranked in the order of dryness>synchronous wetness>synchronous normal,while at Xiantao station in the lower reaches,the synchronous wetness-dryness probability showed the synchronous normal>synchronous dryness>synchronous wetness.The synchronous wetness-dryness probabilities of rainfall in the control catchment for the combination of Shiquan,Baihe and Huangjiagang stations in the upper and middle reaches of the HRB were higher,72.88%;the synchronous wetness-dryness probabilities of rainfall in the control catchment under different combinations of stations showed the synchronous normal>synchronous dryness>synchronous wetness,and that of runoff showed the synchronous dryness>synchronous wetness>synchronous normal.【Conclusion】The consistency of wetness and dryness for runoff and rainfall in the upper and lower reaches of the basin was good and fairly good,and is poor in the middle reaches.Th

关 键 词：汉江流域 COPULA函数 降水径流 丰枯遭遇 风险概率 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]