37mm高炮人影作业的安全性评估  

Safety Evaluation of 37 mm Antiaircraft Gun System for Weather Modification Operations

作　　者：刘伟[1] 秦文 陈农[3] 丁瑞津[4] 卢怡[1] Liu Wei;Qin Wen;Chen Nong;Ding Ruijin;Lu Yi(CMA Supply and Delivery Service in Shanghai,Shanghai 200050;Hunan Xiangke Science and Technology Research Institute Co.,Ltd,Changsha,410100;Weather Modification Office of Heilongjiang Province,Harbin 150030;Weather Modification Office of Gansu Province,Lanzhou 730020)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局上海物资管理处,上海200050 [2]湖南湘科科技研究院有限公司,长沙410100 [3]黑龙江省人工影响天气办公室,哈尔滨150030 [4]甘肃省人工影响天气办公室,兰州730020

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2022年第4期60-65,共6页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

摘　　要：37 mm高炮人工影响天气作业缺乏系统和可量化的安全性评估模型和评估方法,在对作业过程中相关危险源及其动力学过程进行分析的基础上,应用统计学的方法,基于静态试验数据,本文提出了弹丸的大破片、半爆、瞎火和落地炸等事件导致发生安全事故概率的计算方法。以黑龙江省黑河市的一次作业为例,对符合《增雨防雹高炮系统技术要求》标准的三类产品的安全性事故发生概率做了相应计算和对比。分析表明,符合标准要求的产品安全性事故发生概率较小,但应对其进行进一步分析,人影弹药应分级管理,因地制宜选择相应级别的弹药,生产商应着力于提高产品性能,作业人员应有针对性的加强作业安全管控。There lacks a systematic and quantifiable safety evaluation model or method for weather modification operation of 37mm antiaircraft guns.This paper puts forward a method of calculating the probability of safety accidents caused by large fragments of projectiles,half explosion,misfire and ground explosion,etc.The calculation method,which is based on the statistical method and the static test data,is proposed on the analysis of the relevant hazard sources and their dynamic processes during operations.And an operation in Heihe City,Heilongjiang Province is taken as an example.The probability of safety accidents of three types of products in accordance with the “ technical requirements for antiaircraft artillery systems of weather modification” is calculated and compared.The results show that the probability of safety accidents is small for the products meeting the technical requirements.However,further analysis is still necessary.Weather modification ammunition should be managed according to different levels,and the corresponding grade of ammunition should be selected based on local conditions.Manufacturers should focus on improving product performance,and operators should strengthen operation safety control.

关 键 词：人工影响天气 37 mm高炮 安全性评估 概率计算 弹药分级 

分 类 号：P48[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]