应用Maxent模型对我国珍稀植物刺楸分布预测及其保护空缺分析  

Distribution Prediction and Protection Vacancy Analysis of Chinese Rare Species of Kalopanax pohuashanensis Using Maxent Modeling

作　　者：王文波 胡理乐 布艾佳尔 闫伯前[3] Wang Wenbo;Hu Lile;Bu Aijiaer;Yan Boqian(National Forestry and Grassland Administration Survey,Planning and Design Institute,Beijing 100102,P.R.China;Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Forestry Planning Institute;Beijing University of Agriculture)

机构地区：[1]国家林业和草原局林草调查规划院,北京100714 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区林业规划院 [3]北京农学院

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》2022年第8期69-73,97,共6页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

摘　　要：以我国温带-亚热带森林中被人类严重干扰的一种分布稀疏的树种——刺楸(Kalopanax seplobus)为研究对象,使用最大熵分布模型(Maxent)来识别影响刺楸分布的气候和地形因素,并构建了当前气候条件下的生境模型,结合现有的保护地边界信息,利用等分法将适宜性综合评价(P)划分为5个等级,评估现有保护地的分布对刺楸的保护效果。研究发现,降水是预测我国刺楸分布的最重要环境因子,其次是温度,再次是坡度。Maxent模型预测的刺楸潜在高适生(0.6≤P<0.8)和潜在极高适生区(P≥0.8)的面积分别为24.4万km^(2)和9 126.8 km^(2),分别占我国国土面积的2.5%和0.1%,主要位于我国辽东半岛山地-长白山南端、燕山、山东半岛山地、伏牛山-大别山、罗霄山脉中北部、南岭、鄂西南、武陵山系和除云南大部地区的西南各省市低于3 000 m的山地。结合保护地边界和刺楸的极高适生区范围,研究发现,87.5%的刺楸潜在极高适生区未在保护地有效范围内。建议在燕山、鲁中南山地丘陵和大别山的保护地加强对刺楸的保护监管力度,而辽东山地需要增加保护地面积或设立保护小区,同时总体上需要加强上述种群的连通性;而对于在我国西部山区的刺楸种群,需要适当扩大当地保护地面积或设立保护小区以便更好地囊括刺楸潜在极高适生区。We examined a sparsely distributed tree species, Kalopanax septemlobus(Araliaceae), which has been heavily disturbed by human use in temperate and subtropical forests of China. We used maximum entropy distribution modeling(Maxent) to identify the climatic and topographic factors affecting the distribution of the species. Then, we constructed habitat models under current climate conditions of the K. septemlobus habitats. At last, we used equisection method to divide assessment of suitable habitat of the species(P) into 5 hierarchic rank andpiled the maps of border of protected area and the most highly suitable habitat(P≥0.8) to analyze the vacancy of protected area for the species. The precipitation was the most important predictors of species distribution, then temperature, lastly terrain(slope) effects. Our models predicted the highly suitable habitat(0.6≤P<0.8) and most highly suitable habitat of K. septemlobus were 244 000 and 9 126.8 km^(2) respectively, accounted for 2.5% and 0.1% area of China, most of highly suitable habitats were located at Mountains in Liaodong Peninsula-south edge of Changbai Mountain, Yan Mountain, hills of Shandong Peninsula, Funiu Mountain-Dabie Mountain, northern and central of Luoxiao Mountain, Nanling, southwest of Hubei Province, Wuling Mountain and mountains(lower than 3 000 m) in southwest province of China(exclusive of most part of Yunnan Province). And 87.5% of most highly suitable habitat of the species was outside of protected area. We suggested to strengthen the force to protect K. septemlobus in the east of China, such as Yan Mountain, hills of Shandong Peninsula and Dabie Mountain and protected area in the mountain range of Liaodong Peninsula should increase, or some set mini natural reserve, meanwhile, we should take care of the connectiveness of these populations. To protect the species populations in the west of China, it should be better to enlarge the protected area to include the most highly suitable habitat, or some set mini natural reserve. The approach prese

关 键 词：刺楸 Maxent物种分布模型 分布预测 保护空缺分析 

分 类 号：Q948.5[生物学—植物学]