2016—2019年浙江省流行性感冒超额死亡率分析  

Influenza-associated excess mortality in Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2019

作　　者：程伟[1] 周晓燕 余昭[2] 刘社兰[2] 潘金仁[2] 凌锋[2] 陈恩富[2] CHENG Wei;ZHOU Xiaoyan;YU Zhao;LIU Shelan;PAN Jinren;LING Feng;CHEN Enfu(Department of HIV/AIDS and STDS Control and Prevention,Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310051,China;Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310051,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省疾病预防控制中心艾滋病与性病预防控制所,浙江杭州310051 [2]浙江省疾病预防控制中心,浙江杭州310051

出　　处：《预防医学》2022年第9期865-869,共5页CHINA PREVENTIVE MEDICINE JOURNAL

基　　金：浙江省医药卫生科技计划项目(2020KY525)。

摘　　要：目的了解2016—2019年浙江省流行性感冒(流感)超额死亡情况,为流感死亡负担评估提供依据。方法通过浙江省死因登记系统、流感监测系统收集2016—2019年浙江省全死因和流感监测资料,建立分布滞后非线性模型,估算不同年份、流感亚型、年龄人群的流感超额死亡率。结果2016—2019年浙江省流感超额死亡率为18.67(95%CI:15.32~21.97)/10万;2016年最低,为14.19(95%CI:12.00~16.37)/10万;2018年最高,为22.92(95%CI:19.23~26.56)/10万。甲型H1N1、甲型H3N2和乙型流感超额死亡率分别为9.32(95%CI:7.65~10.98)/10万、5.68(95%CI:4.24~7.11)/10万和3.66(95%CI:2.13~5.18)/10万。≥65岁人群流感超额死亡率最高,为142.91(95%CI:115.99~169.55)/10万;其次为15~<65岁人群,为2.74(95%CI:1.87~3.61)/10万;最低为<15岁人群,为0.41(95%CI:-0`.33~1.14)/10万。结论2016—2019年,浙江省流感超额死亡率2018年最高,以65岁及以上老年人群最严重,甲型H1N1为主要流感亚型。建议进一步强化流感监测和流感疫苗接种工作。Objective To estimate the influenza-associated excess mortality(IEM)in Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2019,so as to provide insights into estimates of mortality burden due to influenza.Methods The data pertaining to all-cause death and influenza surveillance in Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2019 were retrieved from Zhejiang Provincial Cause of Death Registration System and Influenza Surveillance System to create distributed lag non-linear models(DLNMs).The year-,influenza subtype-and age-specific IEM rates were estimated.Results The overall IEM was 18.67/10~5(95%CI:15.32/10~5-21.97/10~5)in Zhejiang Province from 2016 to 2019,with the lowest in 2016(14.19/10~5,95%CI:12.00/10~5-16.37/10~5)and the highest in 2018(22.92/10~5,95%CI:19.23/10~5-26.56/10~5).The IEM rates of influenza A(H1N1),influenza A(H3N2)and influenza B were 9.32/10~5(95%CI:7.65/10~5-10.98/10~5),5.68/10~5(95%CI:4.24/10~5-7.11/10~5),and 3.66/10~5(95%CI:2.13/10~5-5.18/10~5).The greatest IEM was seen among residents at ages of 65years and older(142.91/10~5,95%CI:(115.99/10~5-169.55/10~5,followed by among individuals at ages of 15 to 64 years(2.74/10~5,95%CI:1.87/10~5-3.61/10~5),and the lowest was seen among individuals under 15 years of age(0.41/10~5,95%CI:-0.33/10~5-1.14/10~5).Conclusions From 2016 to 2019,the highest IEM was seen in Zhejiang Province in 2018,and the elderly residents at ages of 65 years and above presented the greatest IEM,with influenza A(H1N1)as the predominant influenza subtype.Influenza surveillance and vaccination is recommended to be reinforced.

关 键 词：流行性感冒 超额死亡 分布滞后非线性模型 浙江省 

分 类 号：R373[医药卫生—病原生物学]