成都市水资源存量分析及预测  

Analysis and prediction of water resource stock in Chengdu

作　　者：霍莉朋 姜健俊[3] 黄晓荣[1,2] HUO Lipeng;JIANG Jianjun;HUANG Xiaorong(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,Sichuan,China;College of Water Resource&Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,Sichuan,China;Huaihe River Water Resources Commission Comprehensive Enterprise Development,Bengbu 233001,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610065 [2]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610065 [3]淮河水利委员会综合事业发展中心,安徽蚌埠233001

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2022年第7期37-45,共9页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51779160)。

摘　　要：为探讨成都市经济人口增长和自然变化条件下水资源循环模式的稳定性,根据《自然资源资产负债表试编制度》编制了成都市2000—2019年共20 a的水资源存量及变动表,并综合运用主成分分析法和多元线性回归模型对年末水资源存量的变化进行了成因分析及预测。结果表明:2000—2019年成都市年末水资源存量呈现减少的变化趋势,且减少幅度高达48.4%,其中2008年、2010年和2019年虽较前一年有所增加,但增加幅度均很小。若继续按目前的发展模式发展,2020—2025年成都市年末存量将继续逐年减少,并在2025年达到26 a来年末存量的最低值50.27亿m^(3)。这一变化过程反映出成都市水资源存在“入不敷出”和水循环模式越来越不稳定的特点。为应对经济人口增长所带来的影响,大力发展节水技术、增加跨区域工程调水和进一步合理开发利用沱江的过境水资源已成为缓解成都市水资源压力的当务之急。In order to explore the stability of the water resources circulation pattern under the conditions of economic population growth and natural changes in Chengdu, according to the “Experimental Compilation Degree of Natural Resources Balance Sheet”, a 20-year water stock and change table of Chengdu is compiled from 2000 to 2019. Principal component analysis and multiple linear regression models are used to analyze and predict the causes of changes in water resources at the end of the year. The results show that the year-end stock of water resources in Chengdu shows a decreasing trend from 2000 to 2019, and the decrease is as high as 48.4%. Although 2008, 2010 and 2019 increase compared with the previous year, the increase is small. If we continue to develop in accordance with the current development model, Chengdu’s year-end stock will continue to decrease from 2020 to 2025, and reach the lowest value of 5.027 billion m^(3) of stock in 26 years in 2025. This process of change reflects that Chengdu’s water resources have the characteristics of “being unable to make ends meet” and the increasingly unstable water cycle model. In order to cope with the impact of economic and population growth, vigorously developing water-saving technologies, increasing cross-regional project water transfer, and further rationally developing and utilizing Tuojiang′s transit water resources have become the top priority to resolve the water pressure in Chengdu.

关 键 词：水资源存量及变动表 主成分分析 多元线性回归 年末存量 水循环稳定性 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]