三生空间视角下大夏河流域水生态安全评价与预测  

Evaluation and prediction of water ecological security in Daxia River Basin on the perspective of Production-Living-Ecological Space

作　　者：李若飏 辛存林[1] 陈宁 肖凯文 辛顺杰 LI Ruoyang;XIN Cunlin;CHEN Ning;XIAO Kaiwen;XIN Shunjie(School of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Northwest normal university,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China;School of Architecture and Urban Planning,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]兰州交通大学建筑与城市规划学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2022年第7期82-93,共12页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41262001);甘肃省科技支撑计划项目(20CX9ZA043);甘肃省水生态文明城市建设项目“民勤县水生态文明建设试点实施方案”;甘南藏族自治州黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展规划项目。

摘　　要：为了解三生空间视角下甘肃省大夏河流域水生态安全现状及其变化趋势,建立基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型的三生空间理念水生态安全评价指标体系。在运用熵值法和综合指数法评价水生态安全的基础上,进一步采用灰色GM(1,1)模型预测未来大夏河流域水生态安全状况。结果表明:2007—2012年水生态安全等级处于Ⅳ级(风险级),2013—2018年水生态安全等级处于Ⅲ级(敏感级),2019年水生态安全等级处于Ⅱ级(良好级),总体呈现稳定上升趋势。三生空间中生产空间对大夏河流域水生态安全的影响程度最大,其次是生态空间和生活空间;压力指数变化呈现“V”字型,状态指数变化呈波动上升趋势,响应指数变化趋势较不稳定;预测在2023年水生态安全水平将进入安全级,并保持逐年上升趋势。In order to understand the current situation and trend of water ecological security in the Daxia River Basin of Gansu Province from the perspective of Production-Living-Ecological Space, an evaluation index system of water ecological security based on pressure-state-response( PSR) model was established. Based on the evaluation of water ecological security by entropy method and comprehensive index method, the grey GM(1,1) model was further used to predict the future water ecological security in the Daxia River Basin. The results show that the water ecological security level was IV(risk level) from 2007 to 2012, III(sensitive level) from 2013 to 2018, and II(good level) from 2019, showing a steady upward trend. Production space has the greatest impact on water ecological security in the Daxia River Basin, followed by ecological space and living space;the change of pressure index is ‘V’ type, the change of state index is fluctuating upward trend, and the change trend of response index is unstable. It is predicted that the level of water ecological security will enter the safety level in 2023 and keep increasing year by year.

关 键 词：大夏河流域 水生态安全 三生空间 PSR模型 灰色GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]