Climate change under CMIP5-RCP scenarios in Ethiopia:The Bale mountains ecoregion  

作　　者：Abdulkerim Bedewi SERUR 

机构地区：[1]Department of Water Resources Engineering,School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Adama Science and Technology University,P.O.Box:1888,Adama,Ethiopia

出　　处：《Journal of Mountain Science》2022年第8期2260-2271,共12页山地科学学报（英文）

摘　　要：The Bale mountains ecoregion in Ethiopia provides a number of benefits for the local communities mainly in terms of water supply,power generation,tourism activity,and irrigation development.Notwithstanding,the ecoregion has been characterized primarily by recurring floods and droughts,as well as crop failure due to a variety of natural and human-activity-driven change factors.As a matter of fact,the purpose of this study would be to examine long-term changes and fluctuation in precipitation(PCP),maximum temperature(T_(max)),and minimum temperature(T_(min))in the Bale mountains ecoregion using ensembles of three climate models with three representative concentration pathways(RCPs)scenarios from the coupled model inter-comparison project phase five(CMIP5)dataset.Statistical downscaling model(SDSM)was applied to project PCP,T_(max),and T_(min)in the forthcoming period considering three RCPs:low emission(RCP2.6),intermediate(RCP4.5),and high emission(RCP8.5).SDSM's performance in capturing historical daily PCP,T_(max),and T_(min)has been validated using standard statistical metrics such as coefficient of determination(R^(2)),Nash Sutcliff efficiency(NSE),and root mean square error(RMSE).SDSM has the potential to generate a statistical transfer function between large-scale variables and local climate,allowing PCP,T_(max),and T_(min) to be downscaled to a point scale for the ecoregion.The magnitude of mean yearly changes in PCP,T_(max),and T_(min) were investigated throughout three thirty-year time slices,corresponding to the 2020s,2050s,and 2080s.The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test was used to analyse trends in PCP,T_(max),and T_(min) from 2011 to 2100.Inter-annual variability in PCP,T_(max),and T_(min) were investigated for the aforementioned period,taking standard deviation into account under each RCP scenarios.The results reveal that mean annual PCP,T_(max),and T_(min) are rising in all three time slices and in all three CMIP5 RCP scenarios as compared to the baseline scenario.Mean annual PCP is projected to incre

关 键 词：Climate change and variability CMIP5-ESMs-RCP scenarios SDSM Bale mountains ecoregion Ethiopia 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]