中国历史时期气候变化与粮价关系研究进展  

Research Progress on the Relationship between Historical Climate change and Grain Price in China

作　　者：文彦君[1] 方修琦 萧凌波[3] Wen Yanjun;Fang Xiuqi;Xiao Lingbo(College of geography and Environment,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,721013;Faculty of Geographical Science,Beijing Normal University,100875;The Institute of Qing History,Renmin University of China,100872)

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院地理与环境学院,陕西宝鸡721013 [2]北京师范大学地理科学学部,北京100875 [3]中国人民大学清史研究所,北京100872

出　　处：《中国历史地理论丛》2022年第3期128-137,共10页Journal of Chinese Historical Geography

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项项目“华夏故土数字工程”(XDA19040101);国家社会科学基金重大项目“清代灾荒纪年暨信息集成数据库建设”(13&ZD092)。

摘　　要：粮食安全是国际气候变化研究领域的热点问题,也是中国历史时期气候变化影响研究的重要内容。中国历史气候变化与粮价关系研究,能够为深入理解现代气候变化对粮食安全的影响提供借鉴。本文从研究内容、研究热点、研究方法和研究结论等方面综述了中国历史时期气候变化与粮价关系研究的进展,包括极端气候事件对粮价波动的影响、气候波动与粮价的关联等研究。主要认识有:(1)相关研究主要集中于清代长江中下游、东南沿海、华南及华北地区,重点关注粮价波动对极端气候事件的响应,气候要素、极端气候事件与粮价变化的长时间尺度关联等问题;(2)主要研究方法包括案例史实陈述、时空对比、综合分析等定性方法,以及数据统计、时间序列对比、相关分析等定量方法,近年来格兰杰因果检验、小波分析、空间自相关、时间序列模型等定量实证分析方法得到了更广泛的应用;(3)极端气候事件对粮价波动的影响已经得到广泛证实,而气候波动与粮价的长期关联还存在较大争议。未来将粮价、社会经济因素及历史过程等纳入气候变化影响粮食安全的概念体系,有助于深化对气候变化与粮价关系的时空差异、非线性特征的认识。Food security is a hot issue in international research on climate change,as well as an importantpart of the research on climate change impact in historical China.The study on the relationship betweenhistorical climate change and grain price in China can contribute with further understanding to the impact of climate change on food security at present.This paper summarizes the research progress on the relationship between climate change and grain price in historical China,including the impact of extreme climatic events ongrain price,and the links between climate change and grain price.The follows are the main conclusions:(1)Relevant studies concentrate on the response of grain price to extreme climatic events,as well as focus onthe links among climate factors,extreme climatic events and grain price in long-term reaches of theYangtze River,Southeast Coastal Areas,South China and North China in the Qing dynasty.(2)Relevant scholars not only employ qualitative method,including historical facts stating,comparison in temporal spatial variation and comprehensive analysis,but also apply quantitative empirical analysis methods,such as correlation,Granger Causality Analysis,wavelet analysis,spatial auto-correlation,time series model,especially in recent years.(3)The impact of extreme climatic events on food price fluctuations has been widely confirmed,while the links between climate change and grain price in long-term is still in controversy.Integrating grain price,socio-economic factors and historical process into the conceptual framework of impact andresponse of historical climate change based on food security will help deepen the understanding of the spatio-temporal differences and non-linear characteristics of the relationship between climate change and grain price in China.

关 键 词：历史气候变化 粮价 极端气候事件 环境变迁 

分 类 号：K928[历史地理—人文地理学]