疫情防控效果的跨国比较及其对各国经济发展的影响研究  

Comparative Research on the Cross-country Prevention and Control Effects of Epidemic and Its Impact on Economic Development in Various Countries

作　　者：钱箴 史雪洋 程兵[1] 汪寿阳[1,3] Qian Zhen;Shi Xueyang;Cheng Bing;Wang Shouyang(Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;School of Mathematical Sciences,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049;School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190 [2]中国科学院大学数学科学学院,北京100049 [3]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《管理评论》2022年第6期27-40,共14页Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71988101)。

摘　　要：自2020年1月以来,新冠肺炎疫情在全球范围内持续扩散,国际疫情防控形势相当严峻。在有效疫苗出现前,为了准确评估各国政府应对疫情隔离防控政策的效果,本文基于一种拓展的vSIR传染病模型,针对各个国家构造了一种能够有效量化衡量各国隔离政策效果的隐含社交隔离指数(ISD)。研究表明,首先,该指数可以便捷地实时测量每个国家防控政策的有效性,并且可以反映对病毒传播滞后控制的动态变化以及病毒暂时的爆发和减弱模式。其次,由于社会隔离措施可能会对社会正常生产活动产生不利影响,借助ISD指数来探明疫情之下各项隔离政策如何导致经济的变化,以对后续政策的调整、后疫情时代下经济的复苏提供建设性意见。因此,本文进一步采用Pearl的因果图模型,选择月度制造业采购经理指数(PMI)作为衡量经济影响的指标,研究各个国家ISD指数与PMI之间的关系。平均而言,当经济体实施全社会型的社会隔离政策时,其社会隔离程度与经济发展水平之间存在反向关系:ISD指数越大,说明对病毒的传播控制得越好,同时对社会和经济活动的影响就越大;当经济体实施精准型的社会隔离政策时,隔离政策对社会的经济增长基本没有影响。The worldwide spread of Corona Virus Disease 2019(COVID-19)since January 2020 makes it challenging for each country to prevent and control the disease.In order to assess how effective a country’s policies are in guarding against COVID-19 in the absence of effective vaccines,this paper introduces a new implied social distance index(ISD index)based on an extended vSIR infectious disease model,to each country or region,which can quantify the effects of national quarantine policies effectively.Firstly,this research indicates ISD index can conveniently measure the effectiveness of each country/region’s prevention and control policies in real time and can reflect the dynamic change in the delayed control of virus transmission and spiking and reducing patterns temporally.Secondly,since social quarantine may impact normal social production activities adversely,we hope to find out how various policies affect economic development under the epidemic by using ISD index,so as to provide constructive opinions on the adjustment of follow-up policies and the economic recovery in the post-epidemic era.Therefore,in this paper,we use monthly manufacturing Purchasing Managers’Index(PMI)as a proxy to measure economic impact and use Pearl’s causal model to verify the relationship between ISD index and PMI.On average,when an economy implements a whole society social isolation policy,there is an opposite relationship between degree of social distancing and level of economic cooling down.That is,the larger the ISD index is,the better the Covid-19 spread gets controlled and the more seriously the social and economic activities get affected.When an economy implements precise social isolation policies,such policies barely have impact on the economic growth.

关 键 词：病毒爆发 SIR模型 社交隔离 流行病防控 经济增长 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学] F113[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]