Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(1960-2050)under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions  

作　　者：Zhen-quan Lu Chu-guo Wu Neng-you Wu Hai-long Lu Ting Wang Rui Xiao Hui Liu Xin-he Wu 

机构地区：[1]Oil and Gas Survey,China Geological Survey,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100083,China [2]Information Center,Ministry of Natural Resources,Beijing 100036,China [3]Qingdao Institute of Marine Geology,China Geological Survey,Qingdao 266237,China [4]School of Earth and Space Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China

出　　处：《China Geology》2022年第3期475-509,共35页中国地质（英文）

基　　金：supported by the projects of the China Geological Survey(DD20190102,DD20221857).

摘　　要：Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community.As the world’s third pole,the global warming amplifier,and the starting region of China’s climate change,the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change.The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates(NGHs)resources.Under the background of global warming,whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community.Given this,this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming,aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau.A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.Over the past decades,the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently.Specifically,the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308-0.420℃/10a and increased by approximately 1.54-2.10℃in the past decades.Moreover,the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155-1.575℃and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10^(6)km^(2) from about 1.4×10^(6)km^(2) to 1.06×10^(6)km^(2) in the past decades.As indicated by simulated calculation results,the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29-39 m in the past 50 years,with the equivalent of(1.69-2.27)×10^(10)-(1.12-1.51)×10^(12)m^(3) of methane(CH_(4))being released due to NGHs dissociation.It is predicted

关 键 词：Climate change Global warming PERMAFROST Gas hydrate Greenhouse effect Carbon emission Peak carbon dioxide emissions Carbon neutrality Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environment geological survey engineering China 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学]