基于对数正态分布的新型冠状病毒肺炎病例统计特征分析  

Statistical Analysis of the New Coronavirus Pneumonia Cases Based on Lognormal Distribution

作　　者：赵宜宾[1] 张艳芳[1] 任晴晴[1] ZHAO Yibin;ZHANG Yanfang;REN Qingqing(Department of Basic,Institute of Disaster Prevention,Sanhe,Hebei 065201)

机构地区：[1]防灾科技学院基础部,河北三河065201

出　　处：《工程数学学报》2022年第4期589-598,共10页Chinese Journal of Engineering Mathematics

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费项目(Z2020224);河北省高等学校科学技术研究项目(Z2020224);河北省高等教育教学改革实践项目(2020GJJG351)。

摘　　要：以信息完整、数据链清晰的天津市新型冠状病毒肺炎病例为样本,通过极大似然估计法提取对数正态分布数字特征,构建分析模型。基于对数正态分布对病例潜伏期规律的描述,在假定无症状感染者的潜伏期为接触到确诊的前提下,得到病例的潜伏期均值为12.6天左右,标准差约为6.1天,95%的患者潜伏期在24天以内。通过超出量函数可得,潜伏期超过24天的患者,平均潜伏天数约为30天。以上结果是对某些患者具有超长潜伏期现象的合理解释。同时,利用单因素方差分析,可得新冠肺炎病毒潜伏期与年龄和性别无关,但与接触方式疑似有关。The new coronavirus pneumonia data of Tianjin city is complete and data link is clear.Based on the data,the data characteristics of new coronavirus cases are studied by statistical analysis.The statistical characteristics of latent period are thoroughly explored by lognormal distribution model.The digital characteristics of lognormal distribution are obtained by maximum likelihood estimation.The mean of the latent period of the case is 12.6 days,and the standard deviation is about 6.1 days.The latent period of 95%patients was within 24 days.It can be obtained from the function of excess that the average latent period was about 30 days for patients with latent period more than 24 days.These results are reasonable explanations for the phenomenon of extra long latent period in some patients.At the same time,single factor analysis of variance showed that the virus had no relationship with age and gender,but was suspected to be related to the way of contact.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 潜伏期 对数正态分布 方差分析 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]