基于系统动力学的长期护理保险筹资费率水平研究——以江西省上饶市为例  

Research on level of long-term care insurance financing rate based on system dynamics:a case study of Shangrao,Jiangxi Province

作　　者：陆伟锋 陈欢 杨碧琴 李春 高威 LU Weifeng;CHEN Huan;YANG Biqin;LI Chun;GAO Wei(School of Business Administration,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌工程学院工商管理学院,江西南昌330099 [2]江西科技学院财经学院,江西南昌330098

出　　处：《南昌工程学院学报》2022年第4期79-87,共9页Journal of Nanchang Institute of Technology

摘　　要：失能老人长期护理问题已成为社会民生热点,建立长期护理保险制度可缓解该问题。长期护理保险制度运行的关键在于可持续筹资机制的构建,筹资费率水平是可持续筹资机制构建的核心。本文从系统视角出发,利用系统动力学构建长期护理保险筹资系统模型,并以江西省上饶市为例,对2020—2035年的长期护理保险不同筹资费率水平下基金结余量进行预测。仿真结果显示:随着老龄化水平提升,失能老人数量持续递增会使上饶市长期护理保险基金难以持续;过度依赖于医保基金不利于长期护理保险基金的独立运行。据此提出了完善老年健康支撑体系及建立互助共济、责任共担的多渠道筹资机制。Since entering the aging society,the long-term care of the disabled elderly has become a hot issue in the society and people's livelihood.The establishment of a long-term care insurance system can alleviate this problem,and the key to the operation of the long-term care insurance system lies in the construction of a sustainable financing mechanism.The level of financing rates is the core of the construction of sustainable financing mechanisms,and few scholars have combined the level of long-term care insurance financing rates with the level of economic and social development to carry out the research.In this paper,we take Shangrao City in Jiangxi Province as example,and construct a long-term care insurance financing system model based on system dynamics to predict the fund balance with different financing rates of long-term care insurance from 2020 to 2035.The simulation results show that with the increase of aging level,the continuous increase in the number of disabled elderly people will make it difficult for the long-term care insurance fund in Shangrao to be sustainable,and the excessive dependence on the medical insurance fund is not conducive to the independent operation of the long-term care insurance fund.According to the research,it is proposed to improve the elderly health support system and establish a multi-channel financing mechanism of mutual assistance and responsibility.

关 键 词：长期护理保险 筹资费率 系统动力学 仿真 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]