“双碳”目标下超低能耗建筑市场发展建模及仿真研究  

Research on the modeling and simulation of ultra-low energy buildings under the goal of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"

作　　者：常人龙 滕佳颖[1] CHANG Renlong;TENG Jiaying(School of Economics and Management,Jilin Architecture and Civil Engineering Institute,Changchun 130118,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林建筑大学经济与管理学院,吉林长春130118

出　　处：《新型建筑材料》2022年第8期19-24,共6页New Building Materials

基　　金：吉林省教育厅人文社科研究项目(JJKH20220302SK);吉林省社会科学基金项目(2020B095)。

摘　　要：在节能减排“双碳”目标下,为更好推动建筑业实现绿色转型,促进建筑业可持续发展,基于全生命周期视角,从供需两端进行分析,以政府、开发商、消费者、施工单位为研究主体,探析影响超低能耗建筑市场发展的关键因素。通过建立系统动力学模型,对超低能耗建筑的发展进行仿真分析,并提出相应发展策略。结果表明,供给端成本因素对超低能耗建筑发展影响最大,金融及政策的影响次之;从需求端进行对比分析,发现需求端的量能变化更能刺激超低能耗建筑发展。据此研究,从超低能耗建筑存量改造和增量结构调整两方面入手,提出相关推广建议,以期推动超低能耗建筑快速发展。Under the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals of energy saving and emission reduction,in order to better promote the green transformation and sustainable development of the construction industry,taking the government,developers,con-sumers and construction unit as the main research subjects,this paper analyzes the key factors affecting the development of the ul-tra-low energy consumption building market from the perspective of supply and demand based on the whole life cycle.By estab-lishing a system dynamics model,the development of ultra-low energy consumption buildings is simulated and analyzed,and corre-sponding development strategies are proposed.The research results show that the supply-side cost factor has the greatest impact on the development of ultra-low energy buildings,followed by finance and policy.Comparative analysis from the demand side shows that changes in the demand side can more stimulate the development of ultra-low energy buildings.Based on this research,starting from the two aspects of ultra-low energy consumption building stock transformation and incremental structural adjustment,relevant promotion suggestions are put forward,so as to promote the rapid development of ultra-low energy buildings.

关 键 词：碳达峰 碳中和 超低能耗建筑 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TU201.5[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]