基于Bow-tie-DT-FTA的航空安全事故预防措施决策分析  

Decision-making Analysis of Preventive Measures for Aviation SafetyAccidents Based on Bow-tie-DT-FTA

作　　者：余稼洋 郭建胜[1] 周楚涵 顾涛勇 马铭希 YU Jiayang;GUO Jiansheng;ZHOU Chuhan;GU Taoyong;MA Mingxi(Equipment Management and UAV Engineering College,Air Force Engineering University,Xi’an 710051,China)

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学装备管理与无人机工程学院,西安710051

出　　处：《火力与指挥控制》2022年第8期158-164,共7页Fire Control & Command Control

摘　　要：目前,航空安全领域的研究主要集中在事故的预防和处理上,针对航空事故预防措施决策的相关研究涉及较少。为解决最优预防措施决策问题,提出了Bow-tie-DT-FTA模型。运用Bow-tie模型分析事故发生的前因后果并提出预防措施;运用DT-FTA模型计算各措施效益值,给出措施优劣排序,并对影响措施效益值的因素进行灵敏度分析,挖掘影响最大的关键因素;以飞机尾翼结冰事故为例,运用Bow-tie-DT-FTA模型验证了其解决事故措施决策问题的有效性。At present,the research in the field of aviation safety mainly focuses on accidents prevention and disposal,while the relevant research on the decision-making of aviation accidents prevention measures is less involved.In order to solve the decision-making problem of optimal prevention measures,Bow-tie-DT-FTA model is proposed.Firstly,the causes and consequences of the accidents are analyzed by using Bow-tie model and the prevention measures are proposed.Secondly,DT-FTA method is used to calculate the benefit values of each measure,and the ranking of measures is given.Then,the sensitivity analysis of the factors that affect the benefit value of measures is carried out to dig out the key factors that have the greatest impact.Finally,the Bow-tie-DT-FTA model is used to verify the effectiveness of proposed model to solve the problem of decision-making on accidents by taking the aircraft tail accident as an example.

关 键 词：航空安全 预防措施决策 Bow-tie-DT-FTA 飞机尾翼结冰 

分 类 号：TJ85[兵器科学与技术—武器系统与运用工程] X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]