基于捕获−再捕获方法的城市旅游非正规就业群体规模测算——来自北京市的实证研究  

Estimating Population Size of Informal Employment in Urban Tourism Based on Capture-mark-recapture Approach:A Case Study of Beijing

作　　者：王金伟 王国权 张赛茵[5] 王欣[1,3] Wang Jinwei;Wang Guoquan;Zhang Saiyin;Wang Xin(School of Tourism Sciences,Beijing International Studies University,Beijing 100024,China;Institute of Geographic Sci-ences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;Research Center for Beijing Tourism Development,Beijing 100024,China;College of Tourism and Service Management,Nankai University,Tianjin 300350,China;College of Statistics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]北京第二外国语学院旅游科学学院,北京100024 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]北京旅游发展研究基地,北京100024 [4]南开大学旅游与服务学院,天津300350 [5]首都经济贸易大学统计学院,北京100070

出　　处：《地理科学》2022年第7期1239-1249,共11页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：北京市教育委员会社科计划一般项目(SM202010031003);国家旅游局科研项目面上项目(17TABG014);国家自然科学基金青年项目(41701168)资助。

摘　　要：非正规就业是旅游就业体系中的重要组成部分,在推动城市旅游经济增长方面发挥着不可替代的作用。以故宫博物院、颐和园等北京10个典型景区为例,调查研究了城市旅游景区非正规就业者的群体特征,并探索性地将测量野生动物和敏感人群数量的“捕获–再捕获”及蒙特卡罗模拟方法引入研究,对该群体的规模进行了测算。研究发现:①城市景区旅游非正规就业群体多为低人力资本从业者,青壮年女性居多,以纪念品(土特产)商贩和导游人员为主,多来自就近地区。②北京10个典型城市景区的旅游非正规就业群体规模较小,大约有1126人,这与严格的城市人口疏解和旅游业治理举措密切相关。③“捕获–再捕获”方法可以有效测量流动性大、隐蔽性强的旅游非正规就业者的群体规模,具有一定的科学性和可靠性。Tourism informal employment is an important part of the tourism employment system,which has become an important driving force to promote urban tourism economic growth.However,tourism informal employment could also generate some negative impacts on city management and the order of urban tourism market.To maximize the positive effect of tourism informal employment and to manage it effectively,it is necessary to figure out the scale and current situation of informal employment in the development of urban tourism.However,due to the characteristics of large fluidity,instability and concealment,the measurement of tourism informal employment has become a hard nut to crack for academia.Beijing,as a well-known city tourist destination,has attracted a large number of informal tourism employees along with the rapid development of urban tourism.Due to historical and socio-economic reasons,Beijing’s tourism informal employment has many problems to be solved.Therefore,taking ten typical scenic spots of Beijing as an example,this study investigated the group characteristics of informal employees in urban tourism,and innovatively introduced the capture-mark-recapture(CMR)approach,which was originally used to meas-ure the population number of wild animals,into the scale measurement of informal employees in urban tour-ism.To ensure the effectiveness and feasibility of this method,the reliability and validity of the CMR and its statistical formula are evaluated by Monte Carlo Simulation with SAS software as a statistical analysis tool.The conclusions are as follows:1)the human capital of informal employees in urban tourism scenic spots is re-latively low,most of which are young and middle-aged women.They mainly work as souvenir(local specialty)traders and tour guides,most of which are from the nearby region,North China.2)The overall scale of tourism informal employees in the ten typical scenic spots of Beijing is small(1126),compared with the overall num-ber of employees in the tourism industry of Beijing.The urban tourism inform

关 键 词：城市旅游 非正规就业 旅游就业 捕获–再捕获模型 规模测算 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]