中国通货膨胀预期的实证特征与统计检验  

Empirical Characteristics and Statistical Test of Inflation Expectations in China

作　　者：刘洋[1] 于洋 Liu Yang;Yu Yang(School of Economics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Business,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学商学院,北京100872

出　　处：《统计与决策》2022年第16期123-126,共4页Statistics & Decision

摘　　要：文章基于中国人民银行城镇储户问卷调查数据估算了2012—2022年的中国通胀预期季度序列,并对其所具有的实证特征进行了分析与统计检验。结果发现,在此期间中国城镇通货膨胀预期具有适应性预期的特点,不满足无偏性假定,但仍包含一些主要宏观变量的信息,具有一定的有效性。央行应进一步完善预期管理机制,对通胀预期调查数据的重视程度有待提高。This paper estimates the quarterly series of inflation expectations in China from 2012 to 2022 based on the data from the People’s Bank of China’s Survey of Urban Depositor, and then analyzes and statistically tests its empirical characteristics. The results show that during this period, China’s urban inflation expectations have the characteristics of adaptive expectations and do not meet the unbiased assumption, but still contain the information of some major macro variables, which is of certain validity.The central bank should further improve the expectation management mechanism and attach more importance to the inflation expectation survey data.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 通胀预期 货币政策 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]