2015—2020年宜昌市慢性非传染性疾病死亡水平及变化趋势分析  

Mortality and trend of chronic non-communicable diseases in Yichang in 2015-2020

作　　者：吴婵[1] 鲁芳芳[1] 杨佳娟[1] 苏拥军 WU Chan;LU Fang-fang;YANG Jia-juan;SU Yong-jun(Yichang Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Yichang,Hubei 443003,China;Yichang Municipal Health Commission,Yichang,Hubei 443000,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省宜昌市疾病预防控制中心,湖北宜昌443003 [2]湖北省宜昌市卫生健康委员会,湖北宜昌443000

出　　处：《公共卫生与预防医学》2022年第5期40-44,共5页Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“重大慢性非传染性疾病防控研究”专项“重大慢性病疾病负担及防控策略研究”课题(2018YFC1315305)。

摘　　要：目的分析2015—2020年宜昌市居民慢性非传染性疾病死亡水平、构成比及变化趋势。方法利用中国死因监测系统收集2015—2020年宜昌居民死因监测数据,分析不同季节、性别、年龄和地区的宜昌居民慢性病粗死亡率、标化死亡率以及死亡构成比等。利用2010年第六次全国人口普查数据计算年龄标化死亡率,采用Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.0.0软件拟合Joinpoint回归模型分析时间变化趋势,计算年度变化百分比(APC)及其95%CI。结果2020年宜昌市居民慢性病年龄标化死亡率399.20/10万,2015—2020年间,宜昌市居民慢性病年龄标化死亡率呈显著下降趋势,有统计学意义(APC=-3.42%,P<0.05);城市(APC=-3.52%,P<0.05)和女性(APC=-4.23%,P<0.05)标化死亡率下降较快;大部分年龄组(40岁、70岁组除外)慢性病死亡率下降明显,有统计学意义(APC=-12.31%∽-3.13%,P<0.05);第二、四季度慢性病标化死亡率逐年下降(APC=-3.83%、-4.02%,P<0.05)。城市和女性居民慢性病死亡构成比呈缓慢下降趋势,有统计学意义(APC=-0.39%、-0.54%,P<0.05)。2020年传染病疫情爆发后,第一季度粗死亡率,从过去5年的上升趋势(APC=3.71%,P<0.05)转变为无统计学意义,并低于其它所有年度;慢性病死亡在来院途中、养老服务机构的构成比,从过去的无统计学意义分别转变为呈下降趋势(APC=-14.65%,P<0.05)、上升趋势(APC=8.03%,P<0.05)。结论2015—2020年宜昌市居民慢性非传染性疾病年龄标化死亡率下降,城市和女性死亡构成比下降,传染病疫情阶段性改变了慢性非传染性疾病死亡的时间趋势、局部影响了居民临终地点的选择。建议落实慢性病全人群防控策略,重点关注农村、男性居民,全面落实慢性病的综合防治,加强医防协同,优化慢性病管理方式。Objective To analyze the level,constituent ratio,and change trend of death caused by chronic non-communicable diseases(NCDs)in Yichang from 2015 to 2020.Methods The death monitoring data of residents in Yichang from 2015 to 2020 were collected from the National Mortality Surveillance System,and the crude mortality rate,standardized mortality rate and death composition ratio of Yichang residents in different seasons,genders,ages and regions were analyzed.The standardized mortality was calculated using the data of the sixth national census in 2010.The Joinpoint regression model(Joinpoint Regression Program 4.9.0.0 software)was used to analyze the trend of time variation.The annual change percentage(APC),and(95%CI were calculated.Results In 2020,the age-standardized mortality of NCDs in Yichang was 399.20 per 100000.From 2015 to 2020,the age-standardized mortality rate of chronic diseases among residents in Yichang showed a significant downward trend(APC=-3.42%,P<0.05).The standardized mortality of NCDs decreased rapidly in urban areas(APC=-3.52%,P<0.05)and in women(APC=-4.23%,P<0.05).The standardized mortality of NCDs in most groups(except age 40-year-old and 70-year-old groups)decreased significantly(APC=-12.31%∽-3.13%,P<0.05).The standardized mortality of NCDs in the first and fourth quarters decreased year by year(APC=-3.83%,-4.02%,P<0.05).The constituent ratio of death caused by NCDs in urban areas and in female residents in Yichang declined slowly(APC=-0.39%,-0.54%,P<0.05).After the outbreak of infectious diseases in 2020,the crude mortality in the first quarter changed from an upward trend in the past 5 years(APC=3.71%,P<0.05)to no statistical significance,and the rude mortality in 2020 was lower than all other years.The constituent ratios of deaths from NCDson the way to the hospital and deaths in the elderly care service institutions changed from no statistical significance in the past to a downward trend(APC=-14.65%,P<0.05)and an upward trend(APC=8.03%,P<0.05),respectively.Conclusions From 2015 to 2020,t

关 键 词：慢性非传染性疾病 死亡率 趋势 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]