中美贸易中马歇尔-勒纳条件的修正与应用  

The Revisions and Applications of Marshall-Lerner Condition in Sino-US Trade

作　　者：严佳佳 詹琳 YAN Jia-jia;ZHAN Lin(School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350108)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福建福州350108

出　　处：《商学研究》2022年第4期96-108,共13页Commercial Science Research

基　　金：国家社科基金重大研究专项项目“金融扩大开放格局下货币政策与宏观审慎政策有效协调研究”(20BJY234)。

摘　　要：在中美贸易摩擦不断和中国扩大对外开放的背景下,马歇尔-勒纳条件作为汇率变动与贸易关系的重要理论,对经济现实具有极其重要的指导价值。通过将人民币实际有效汇率分解为人民币对美元实际有效汇率和美元实际有效汇率的乘积形式,推演国际收支弹性分析法,将美国对中国出口和美元有效汇率对中美实际汇率的弹性作为重要参数,得到修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件。为了验证结论的合理性,将汇率和贸易福利进行有机结合,采用异质性企业一般均衡框架对分行业贸易福利进行估计,深入分析中美汇率波动对我国贸易福利的影响。结果发现,修正的马歇尔-勒纳条件成立,汇率与贸易福利呈现较为明显的正相关关系。基于此提出相应的政策建议。In the context of continuous Sino-US trade frictions and China’s opening to the outside world,the Marshall-Lerner condition,as an important theory of exchange rate changes and trade relations,has extremely important guiding value to economic reality.The article decomposes the real effective exchange rate of RMB into the product of the real effective exchange rate of RMB to the US dollar and the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar.Deducing the elasticity analysis method of international balance of payment by using the elasticity of US exports to China and the effective exchange rate of the US dollar to the real exchange rate between China and the United States as important parameters,the article obtains the modified Marshall-Lerner condition.To verify the rationality of the conclusion,this article organically combines exchange rate and trade welfare,adopts the heterogeneous enterprise general equilibrium framework to estimate subsector trade welfare,and deeply analyzes the impact of Sino-US exchange rate fluctuations on China’s trade welfare.It turns out that the modified Marshall-Lerner condition is valid,and the exchange rate and trade welfare show a more obvious positive correlation.Based on the findings,this article puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.

关 键 词：马歇尔-勒纳条件 人民币兑美元汇率 贸易收支 分行业贸易福利 中国工业企业数据库 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学] F752.712