1961-2017年中国中东部暖季小时强降水时空变化特征  

Spatial and Temporal Variation Characteristics of Warm-season Hourly Heavy Precipitation over Central and Eastern China from 1961 to 2017

作　　者：张志富[1] 希爽[2] Zhang Zhifu;Xi Shuang(National Meteorological Information Center,Beijing 100081,China;Center for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of CMA,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]国家气象信息中心,北京100081 [2]中国气象局地球系统数值预报中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2022年第5期1-7,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2017001);国家自然科学基金(41905031);国家重点研发计划项目(SQ2017YFC150064)。

摘　　要：基于中国中东部2097站1961—2017年5—9月的小时降水数据,采用极端、平均和区域平均时间序列分析等方法,研究了暖季小时强降水的时空变化特征。结果表明,超过100 mm/h的极端小时降水区域主要分布在东部沿海和华南地区,中部地区和东北地区大部分小时强降水为50~80 mm/h,中北部地区小时强降水以20~50 mm/h为主。极端小时降水发生月份有明显的自南向北逐渐推进特征。极端小时降水发生时次相对分散。年小时强降水平均、极大小时强降水发生时次数均有明显的东南—西北分布特征,江苏、安徽、江西、福建、广东、广西等平均发生时次数为5~10次、极大时次数为10~20次。平均超过10次、极大超过20次的区域主要分布在两广的沿海和海南地区。在平均小时强降水发生月份的比率分布上,华南地区小时强降水各月分布差异相对较小,6月的最大,其他区域的小时强降水主要集中发生在7—8月。在平均小时强降水发生时次的比率分布上,中北部和东北地区的发生时间主要集中在13—21时,中部地区的发生时间主要集中在23时—次日04时,东部沿海和华南地区的发生时间都主要集中在14—19时和04—07时。在区域年平均小时强降水发生日数和次数上,中北部地区活跃期有20~30年的周期性变化特征及周期缩短趋势,东北地区在20世纪80—90年代有活跃期变化,东部沿海和中部地区无明显活跃期转变,华南地区活跃期有30年左右的周期性变化特征,各区域年变化均有线性增长趋势,但均未通过0.05的显著性检验。Based on hourly precipitation data from 2097 stations in central and eastern China from May to September during 1961—2017, the spatial and temporal characteristics of hourly heavy precipitation(HHP) are analyzed via the methods of annual extreme, annual average and regional average. The results show that the extreme hourly precipitation over 100 mm/h is mainly distributed in South China and the coastal areas of eastern China, the severe precipitation of 50—80 mm/h mainly occurs in central China and most part of Northeast China, and the heavy rainfall of 20—50 mm/h appear more in central and northern China. The months with the occurrence of extreme hourly precipitation have clear features of gradually advancing from south to north. The extreme hourly precipitation occurs in relatively scattered times. The annual average and maximum occurring times of HHP have clear features of the southeast-northwest distribution. In the provinces of Jiangsu, Anhui, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi and other regions, the average frequency is 5—10 times annually, and the maximum frequency is 10—20 times. The annual average frequency over 10 times and the maximum over 20 times of HHP are mainly distributed in the coastal areas of Guangdong, Guangxi and Hainan. In terms of the occurring month frequency of HHP, it is relatively uniform in each month in South China, but the maximum frequency shows differences in June. In other regions, the HHP occurs mainly in July and August. On the occurring time frequency of the average HHP, the central and northern China and Northeast China receive heavy precipitation mainly in 13:00 to 21:00, while central China often has heavy rainfall between 23:00 and 04:00, and heavy rainfall in southeast coasts of China and South China occurs mainly in the time periods of 14:00—19:00 and 04:00—07:00. As for the average number of days or times of HHP, the central and northern China has the characteristics of 20—30 years’ periodic variation and the trend of periodic shortening. There is an

关 键 词：小时降水 强降水 极端小时降水 比率 区域平均 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]