近48年河南省夏季极端干旱时空分布特征  

Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of the Summer Extreme Drought in Henan Province in Recent 48 Years

作　　者：冀航 刘娟 薛昌颖[1,4] 李浩宁 Ji Hang;Liu Juan;Xue Changying;Li Haoning(Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,CMA,Zhengzhou 450003,China;School of Ecology and Environment of Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Henan Institute of Standardization,Zhengzhou 450046,China;Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Huaxian Weather Station of Henan Province,Huaxia 456400,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室,郑州450003 [2]郑州大学生态与环境学院,郑州450001 [3]河南省标准化研究院,郑州450046 [4]河南省气象科学研究所,郑州450003 [5]滑县气象局,河南滑县456400

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2022年第5期8-14,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：黄淮海地区夏玉米季极端干旱风险及影响预估(AMF201803)。

摘　　要：根据世界气象组织推荐的极端干旱指标(最大连续无降水日数,CDD),利用河南省84个气象站1971—2018年6月到9月日降水量等气象数据,统计出各台站每年最大连续无降水日数(CDD),采用一元线性回归等方法,分析了近48年河南省夏季极端干旱时空分布特征。结果表明:河南省总体CDD呈现增加趋势,在1997达到最高,为27.6,最低为1984年的11.5。从年代际变化来看,除1990s—2000s CDD有所下降外,近48年的整体趋势为逐渐增加。空间分布上,全省各地区CDD均呈现出逐渐增加的趋势,豫西地区增速最大,为0.76 d/10a,豫东地区增速最小,为0.13 d/10a。河南省夏季CDD在1996年前后发生一次突变,并存在明显的5~7a的小尺度演变周期。1986年后各地区CDD均在平均值以上,未来极端干旱发生频率将会继续增加,各部门应做好预防措施应对不断加剧的极端干旱情况。According to the standard of continuous non-precipitation days, the maximum continuous non-precipitation days(CDD) per year is calculated as drought index by using the observation data from 84 meteorological stations in Henan Province from June to September 1971—2018, and the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of extreme drought in summer in Henan in recent 48 years are analyzed by using the linear regression method and so on.The results show that the overall CDD in Henan is gradually increasing, reaching a maximum of 27.6 in 1997 and a minimum of 11.5 in 1984.From the inter-decadal changes, even though it declined in the 1990 s—2000 s, the overall trend gradually increased.In terms of spatial distribution, CDD in all regions of Henan shows a gradually increasing trend, with the maximum growth rate of 0.76 d/decade in western Henan and the minimum growth rate of 0.13 d/decade in eastern Henan.A sudden change occurred in summer CDD in Henan province around 1996, and there was an obvious small-scale evolution cycle of 5—7 years.CDD was above average in all regions after 1986, and the frequency of extreme drought increased.Therefore, it can be predicted that the frequency of extreme drought in Henan province will continue to increase in the future.All departments should take preventive measures to address the continuous and serious drought phenomenon.

关 键 词：连续无降水日 极端干旱 时空分布 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]