基于多层线性模型的公共自行车接驳公交换乘量影响因素分析  

Analysis of the influencing factors of public-bicycle-connecting regular bus transfer volume based on multilevel linear model

作　　者：王志军[1] 张豫徽 季彦婕[2,3] 樊瑶 WANG Zhi-jun;ZHANG Yu-hui;JI Yan-jie;FAN Yao(China Railway Siyuan Survey and Design Group Co.,Ltd.,Wuhan 430063,China;School of Transportation,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China;National Demonstration Center for Experimental Road and Traffic Engineering Education,Southeast University,Nanjing 211189,China;Microsoft China Co.,Ltd.Wuxi Branch,Wuxi 214000,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁第四勘察设计院集团有限公司,武汉430063 [2]东南大学,交通学院,南京211189 [3]东南大学,道路交通工程国家级实验教学示范中心,南京211189 [4]微软中国有限公司无锡分公司,无锡214000

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2022年第3期81-88,共8页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFB1600900)。

摘　　要：公共自行车接驳常规公交可扩大公交服务范围,提高公交可达性,符合“公交优先、绿色出行”的发展理念。为提高公共自行车接驳公交的服务水平,针对公共自行车接驳公交换乘量影响因素展开研究。基于江苏省宜兴市公共自行车借还卡、常规公交智能卡刷卡记录提取的接驳识别结果,结合个人属性、出行特性等因素,并考虑公交站点周边的建成环境,构建多层线性模型,分析不同因素对换乘量的影响。结果表明:考虑站点建成环境因素的多层线性模型效果更佳;个人属性中年龄变量显著,出行特性方面公交平均等待时间对用户换乘量的负向影响最大,建成环境中教育机构、公司企业、娱乐场所等各类兴趣点密度、道路密度以及交叉口密度均与用户换乘量呈负相关。在此基础上,基于影响换乘量的显著因素提出了提升自行车接驳常规公交吸引力的建议。Connecting public bicycles to regular buses can expand the range of public transportation services and improve accessibility,which is consistent with the development concept of transit priority and green travel.To further improve the implementation of public-bicycle-connecting bus service,the influencing factors of transfer volume were studied.This study was based on the connection recognition results extracted from the swiping records of public bicycle loan-return cards and integrated circuit(IC)cards used in conventional public transportation in Yixing City,Jiangsu Province.The data of personal attributes,travel characteristics,and other factors were combined,and the built environment around the bus station was also considered.The multilevel linear model was developed to analyze the influence of various factors on the transfer volume.The results show that the multilevel linear model that considers the built environment of the site is effective.In travel characteristics,age is a significant factor in personal attributes,and average bus waiting time has the greatest negative impact on user transfer volume.In the built environment,the point of interest(POI)density,road density,and intersection density of educational institutions,companies,and entertainment venues are negatively correlated with user transfer volume.Accordingly,the relevant policy suggestions are proposed based on the significant factors that affect the transfer volume.

关 键 词：公共自行车 接驳 常规公交 多层线性模型 影响因素分析 政策建议 

分 类 号：U291.16[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]