无信号控制路段人行横道人车冲突风险分析  

Risk analysis of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts at unsignalized mid-block crosswalks

作　　者：袁黎[1] 王曌亚 周荷媛 YUAN Li;WANG Zhao-ya;ZHOU He-yuan(College of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;College of Computer and Information,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学,土木与交通学院,南京210098 [2]河海大学,计算机与信息学院,南京210098

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2022年第3期154-163,共10页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71801080);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(18YJAZH119);江苏省交通运输科技项目(2021G04)。

摘　　要：以无信号控制路段人行横道为研究对象,在分析人车冲突特性的基础上,基于人车冲突发生的概率、冲突肇事后的严重性及行人车期望冲突量,构建无信号控制路段人行横道人车冲突风险评估模型。分析无信号控制路段人行横道人车到达分布规律,建立人车冲突概率模型;依据物理动力学原理和行人碰撞损伤程度量化人车冲突肇事后的严重性,确定行人与不同车型机动车在不同碰撞位置发生冲突的碰撞严重程度的权重关系;利用数学期望知识建立的人车期望冲突量模型,综合考虑了人车冲突发生的潜在概率、交通量大小、人车冲突位置等因素,更真实地描述了实际人车冲突行为,并将人车冲突安全风险等级划分为5级,分析了无信号控制路段的不同危险感受隶属度,对不同等级下的隶属度进行拟合得到隶属函数,在水平截集为0.9条件下获取各等级区间值,评估结果可由定量数值转化为定性结论。最后选取南京市15处无信号控制路段人行横道进行实地调查分析,对模型的有效性进行了验证。This study examines unsignalized mid-block crosswalks.Based on the analysis of the characteristics of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts at unsignalized mid-block crosswalks and using the probability model of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts,the severity of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts after accident and the expected quantity of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts,the safety risk assessment model of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts at unsignalized mid-block crosswalks is built.This paper analyzes the arrival distribution of pedestrians and vehicles,and establishes the probability model of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts.The severity of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts after accident is quantified according to the principle of physical dynamics and the degree of pedestrian collision damage.As a result,the weight of collision severity between pedestrians and different types of vehicles at different collision positions can be determined.The expected quantity of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts is calculated using mathematical expectation.Considering the potential probability,traffic volume and location of pedestrian-vehicle conflicts,the actual pedestrian-vehicle conflict behavior is more truly described.The pedestrian-vehicle conflicts safety risk level is then divided into five levels.The membership degree of the risk perception for the different unsignalized mid-block crosswalks is analyzed,and the membership degrees at different safety risk levels are fitted in order to obtain the membership functions.When the horizontal cut set is 0.9,the interval values of each level is obtained.The assessment results can be transformed from quantitative values into qualitative conclusions.Finally,a survey is conducted on 15 unsignalized mid-block crosswalks in Nanjing.The validity of the model is verified.

关 键 词：城市交通 无信号路段 人行横道 人车冲突 交通安全 

分 类 号：U491.265[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]