气候变化下2种有害蚧虫在中国的适生区预测  

Prediction of the Potential Distribution Areas of Two Harmful Scale Insects in China under Climate Change

作　　者：成丽芳[1] 赵清 张虎芳 高新悦 魏久锋 CHENG Lifang;ZHAO Qing;ZHANG Hufang;GAO Xinyue;WEI Jiufeng(College of Plant Protection,Shanxi Agricultural University,Taigu 030801,China;Department of Biology,Xinzhou Teachers University,Xinzhou 034000,China)

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学植物保护学院,山西太谷030801 [2]忻州师范学院生物系,山西忻州034000

出　　处：《山西农业科学》2022年第9期1333-1344,共12页Journal of Shanxi Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(31872272);山西省留学基金项目(2020-064,2020-065)。

摘　　要：由于未来温室效应对昆虫发育的影响,气候变化将对害虫分布格局产生显著的影响。康氏粉蚧和日本龟蜡蚧是我国严重的蚧害之一,严重影响果树产量。基于当前和未来气候条件(2050、2070年),利用生态位模型来预测康氏粉蚧和日本龟蜡蚧在中国的潜在适生区分布。结果表明,在当前气候条件下康氏粉蚧的高适生区主要位于河北、河南和湖南的大部分地区以及山西、陕西、浙江、福建、江西和广西的部分地区;日本龟蜡蚧的高适生区主要分布在河南、湖南、江西的大部分地区,以及陕西、山西、云南、广西、广东、福建、河北、安徽、内蒙古和山东的少数地区。与当前气候相比,康氏粉蚧在2050年高适生区面积逐渐增加,增加了1.22%;而日本龟蜡蚧的高适生区面积逐渐减少,减少了1.85%;在2070年,康氏粉蚧的适生区面积逐渐增加,在RCP为8.5时达到最高,为67.1万km^(2);日本龟蜡蚧适生区的面积逐渐减少,在RCP为8.5时达到最小,为26.5万km^(2)。基于当前和未来气候,研究对危害较为严重的康氏粉蚧和日本龟蜡蚧2种蚧虫的潜在分布区进行了预测,通过潜在分布区范围来确定害虫综合管理,进一步针对性优化害虫的防治措施。Due to the impact of future greenhouse effect on insect development,climate change will have a significant impact on the distribution patterns of pests.The Pseudococcus comstocki and the Ceroplastes japonicus are one of the serious scale pests in China,they severely damage yield of fruit trees.In this study,based on the current and future climate conditions(2050 and 2070),a niche model was used to predict the distribution of potential suitable areas of Pseudococcus comstocki and Ceroplastes japonicus in China.The results showed that the high-suitability areas of Pseudococcus comstockiare were located in most areas of Hebei,Henan,and Hunan,and some parts of Shanxi,Shaanxi,Zhejiang,Fujian,Jiangxi,and Guangxi in current climate conditions.The high-suitability areas of Ceroplastes japonicus were located in most areas of Henan,Hunan,and Jiangxi,as well as a few areas in Shaanxi,Shanxi,Yunnan,Guangxi,Guangdong,Fujian,Hebei,Anhui,Inner Mongolia,and Shandong.Compared with the current climate,the high-suitability area of Pseudococcus comstocki in 2050 will gradually increase by 1.22%than ever;while the high-suitability area of Ceroplastes japonicus will gradually decrease by 1.85%.In 2070,the highsuitability area of Pseudococcus comstocki will gradually increase to 6.71×105 km^(2)that is the maximum when RCP is 8.5;the high-suitability area of Ceroplastes japonicus will gradually reduce to 2.65×105 km^(2)that is the minimum when RCP is 8.5.Based on the current and future climate,the potential distribution areas of the two scale insects,Pseudococcus comstocki and Ceroplastes japonicus were predicted,the integrated pest management was determined through the range of the potential distribution areas,and the pest control measures was further optimized.

关 键 词：蚧虫 潜在分布 生态位模型 气候变化 中国 

分 类 号：S433.39[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]