中国金融风险调控范式选择:贷款价值比政策还是个人住房贷款占比政策?  

The Paradigm of Choice for Financial Risk Control in China:The Loan-to-Value Ratio Policy or the Personal Housing Loan Ratio Policy?

作　　者：王维安[1] 谢朱斌 陈梦涛 Wang Weian;Xie Zhubin;Chen Mengtao(School of Economics,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学经济学院,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2022年第6期66-85,共20页Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(19CGL003)。

摘　　要：通过构建一个六部门的DSGE模型,在家庭部门中引入投机行为,评估个人住房贷款占比的政策效力,并将其与传统的贷款价值比(LTV)政策进行比较,研究发现:第一,两种宏观审慎政策均能提升社会总福利,调控房地产与银行金融风险,平抑主要经济金融变量波动。第二,在住房偏好、技术进步冲击下,短期内LTV政策能够更好地调控金融风险,而个人住房贷款占比政策的长期抑制效应更佳;在货币政策冲击下,个人住房贷款占比在长短期的表现均优于LTV政策,且不会对经济产出有显著负面影响。第三,在住房偏好与货币政策冲击下,个人住房贷款占比政策能更好地与货币政策协调,福利改进更大。进一步研究发现,两种政策钉住目标不同也会导致其福利改进与稳定波动率表现产生差异。After the 2008 financial crisis, macro-prudential supervision has been generally valued across the world. The People’s Bank of China formally established a Macro Prudential Assessment(MPA)system in 2016, with the macro-prudential capital adequacy ratio as the core, including seven major aspects of capital and leverage, liquidity, asset quality, etc., to prevent and resolve potential systemic risks in the financial system. However, various financial risks have gradually surfaced with the long-term growth of Chinese economy. The real estate industry is over-prosperous, and bank credit has had unbalanced expansion, forming a positive cycle of agglomeration of systemic risks. In order to enhance the banking industry ’ s ability to defend against the volatility of the real estate market, and in the meanwhile to alleviate the real estate bubble caused by the over-concentration of credit to regulate the financial risks of banking and real estate industry, the People’s Bank of China launched a macro-prudential policy of personal housing loan ratio at the end of 2020 to further enrich the existing MPA system.The existing literature on the research of macro-prudential policy mainly focuses on real estate and banking financial risks, the effect of macro-prudential policy implementation, and the macro-prudential policy of real estate finance. However, there are still some deficiencies: First, no research has been found to quantify the effect of personal housing loan ratio. Even if it is a qualitative study, the understanding of this policy is still purely limited to the regulation of housing prices, and the researchers have not discussed the issue from the macro-prudential perspective of stabilizing financial risks. Second, the indicators for evaluating financial risks are one-sided and can hardly represent comprehensive financial risks. Furthermore,there is a lack of discussion on the impact of policies on the real economy. Third, when evaluating policies,most studies only draw conclusions from numerical simulation re

关 键 词：宏观审慎政策 个人住房贷款占比 贷款价值比 金融风险 政策对比 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] F299.23