我国饲料粮供需缺口估算研究  

Estimation of Supply-Demand Gap of Feed Grain in China

作　　者：张婷 周睿 陈雨生[1] Zhang Ting;Zhou Rui;Chen Yusheng(College of Management,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《山东农业科学》2022年第8期158-165,共8页Shandong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中央农办、农业农村部乡村振兴专家咨询委员会软科学课题“饲料粮供给保障能力问题研究”(202104)。

摘　　要：本研究结合畜产品、水产品消费和饲料料肉比测算我国饲料粮需求量,综合分析我国饲料粮供需形势与供需缺口变动,并利用灰色模型预测2022—2030年我国饲料粮供需状况。结果表明,在不考虑进口的情况下,我国饲料粮始终呈现为供不应求的状态,未来饲料粮需求量强劲增长,2022—2030年供需缺口逐年递增,根据无偏灰色模型和新陈代谢灰色模型的预测结果,2025年供需缺口预期达到10 253.98万吨和12 786.30万吨,2030年供需缺口预期达到10 920.18万吨和17 939.97万吨。为保障饲料粮供给安全,缩小饲料粮供需缺口,应提升粮食供给能力,打破粮食生产面临的资源约束;开发非粮食饲料,减轻饲料粮供给压力;科学养殖,提高饲料转化效率;充分利用国际市场,实现饲料粮多元进口。According to the consumption of livestock and aquatic products and feed conversion ratio,we calculated the demand amount of feed grain,systematically analyzed the variation of supply and demand and supply-demand gap of feed grain,and further forecasted the supply and demand in China during 2022-2030 based on gray model.Without considering import,China’s feed grain is always in short supply.Its demand will grow strongly in the future,and the supply-demand gap would increase gradually during 2022-2030.Based on the prediction results of unbiased grey model and dynamic gray model,the supply-demand gap of feed grain will reach 102.5398 million tons and 127.8630 million tons,and it will reach 109.2018 million tons and 179.3997 million tons in 2030.In order to ensure the supply security and narrow the supply-demand gap of feed grain,it was necessary to enhance the food supply capacity,break the resource constraints of food production,develop non-food feed to reduce feed grain supply pressure,scientifically raise to improve feed conversion efficiency,make full use of international market and realize diversified import of feed grain.

关 键 词：饲料粮 供需缺口 粮食安全 

分 类 号：S816.4[农业科学—饲料科学] F323.7[农业科学—畜牧学]