2010—2020年青海省水痘流行特征分析及时空动态研究  

The epidemiology and temporal-spatial distribution of varicella in Qinghai,2010—2020

作　　者：赵金华[1] 龙江[2] 赵建海[1] 徐莉立[1] 马斌忠[1] 曹海兰[1] ZHAO Jin-hua;LONG Jiang;ZHAO Jian-hai;XU Li-li;MA Bin-zhong;CAO Hai-lan(Institute of Infectious Disease Prevention and Control,Qinghai Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Xining,Qinghai 810007,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,青海西宁810007 [2]重庆市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2022年第15期2700-2703,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：“昆仑英才·高原名医”项目(青卫健办【2021】104号);青海省传染性疾病分子生物学重点实验室(2021-0402-ZJC0021)。

摘　　要：目的对青海省2010—2020年水痘报告病例和和时空特征进行分析,为水痘疫情防制提供依据。方法从《传染病信息报告系统》中导出青海省2010—2020年的水痘年发病数(率)及月发病数(率)为,采用ArcGIS 10.2绘制2010—2020年水痘发病县区分布图,采用SatScan 9.5对水痘发病时空聚集性进行分析。结果2010—2020年青海省累计报告水痘病例25015例,发病率在20.78~72.00/10万之间波动,年均发病率39.79/10万,男性发病高于女性;发病率居前3位的年份为2019年、2020年和2018年;发病前5位的年龄是6岁组(250.57/10万)、7岁组(233.98/10万)、5岁组(222.63/10万)、9岁组(198.73/10万)和8岁组(195.79/10万),其中病年龄中位数总体上是7岁,2010—2014年中位数8岁,2015—2020年为9岁,时间上主高峰为11月,次高峰为6月,低谷为2月;时空扫描统计共扫描到4个聚集区,一类聚集区为2016年10月至2020年12月海东市化隆、平安、循化和黄南州尖扎4个县区,二类聚集区为海北、海西和玉树市等9个县区。结论青海省水痘发病率呈现2~3年周而复始的螺旋上升态势,高发人群为5至9岁组儿童,发病存在年龄后移现象,时空上呈现2016—2020年东部向南部蔓延(海东市和黄南周),西部蔓延至北部态势(海北和海西州),应强化高发区域为中心的周边排查和风险预警。Objective To provide a basis for the prevention and control of varicella by analyzing the reported cases and temporal and spatial characteristics in Qinghai Province.Methods The annual incidence(rate)and monthly incidence(rate)of varicella in Qinghai Province from 2010 to 2020 were derived from Infectious Disease Information Reporting System.ArcGIS 10.2 was used to draw the distribution map of varicella incidence in counties from 2010 to 220,and SatScan9.5 was used to analyze the temporal and spatial aggregation of varicella incidence.Results A total of 250015 cases of varicella were reported in Qinghai Province from 2010 to 2020.The incidence of varicella fluctuated between 20.78 and 72.00/100000,with an average annual incidence of 39.79/100000.The incidence of varicella in males was higher than that in females.The first three years of morbidity were 2019,2020 and 2018.The five age groups before onset were 6-year-old group(250.57/100000),7-year-old group(233.98/100000),5-year-old group(222.63/100000),9-year-old group(198.73/100000)and 8-year-old group(195.79/100000).The median age of illness was 7 years overall,8 years in 2010—2014 and 9 years in 2015—2020.The main peak was in November,the secondary peak was in June,and the trough was in February.A total of 4 aggregation areas were detected by spatio-temporal scanning.The first type of aggregation area included Hualong,Ping’an,Xunhua and Jianza in Haidong City from October 2016 to December 2020,and the second type of aggregation area consisted of Haibei,Haixi and Yushu.Conclusion The incidence of Qinghai Province present 2-3 years cycle has risen in a spiral,and 5 to 9 years old group of children are at high risk.There is a phenomenon on age backward.The temporal-spatial distribution presents disseminations from the east to the south and from the north to the west.Epidemic screening and early risk warning should be strengthened around centers of the high-risk areas.

关 键 词：水痘 时空特征 高原地区 

分 类 号：R511.5[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]