大数据支撑国防科技体系能力评估方法探讨与建议  

Discussion and countermeasures:the capability assessment method for the defense science and technology system supported by big data

作　　者：高智杰 刘迪 赵刚[4] 衣双辉[4] 苏晓艳[4] 蔡戬 GAO Zhijie;LIU Di;ZHAO Gang;YI Shuanghui;SU Xiaoyan;CAI Jian(Institute of National Security and Development Studies,Beijing Institute of Technology,Beijing 100081,China;Center for Strategic Research on Frontier and Interdisciplinary Engineering Science and Technology,Beijing 100081,China;China Electronic Product Reliability and Environmental Testing Research Institute,Guangzhou 511370,China;Beijing Institute of System Engineering,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]北京理工大学国家安全与发展研究院,北京100081 [2]中国工程科技前沿交叉战略研究中心,北京100081 [3]中国电子产品可靠性与环境试验研究所,广东广州511370 [4]北京系统工程研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《国防科技》2022年第4期93-100,共8页National Defense Technology

基　　金：军队科研基金(XM2021XT1022);中国工程院咨询项目(2021-XXX-11)。

摘　　要：随着我国国防科技体系建设迈向高质量发展新阶段,传统的国防科技体系评估方法和过程已无法满足现实需求,数字化转型、新技术结合与评估方法的创新势在必行。本文从国防科技体系的内涵解析出发,基于国防科技体系的概念和特征设计确立了国防科技体系能力评估模型、指标及方法;通过大数据技术融入体系能力评估方法的分析和运用,构筑获得了基于大数据分析的国防科技体系能力评估框架,并提出了推进国防科技体系能力评估的政策建议和方法路径。研究表明,国防科技体系总体能力指数-能力域-能力项的模型结构可实现体系能力的量化评估,通过与传统评估方法相融合,形成基于大数据分析的体系能力评估,能够有效解决传统体系评估面临的人力成本和主观性等问题。为此建议,建设基于大数据的国防科技体系能力综合评估分析平台,以平台为载体形成常态化的国防科技体系能力评估和报告工作机制,并依托第三方机构独立开展体系能力评估实施工作,推进国防科技体系能力建设高质量发展。As the construction of China’s defense science and technology system enters a new stage of high quality development,traditional assessment methods and evaluation processes related to the national defense science and technology system can no longer meet the actual needs.It is imperative to promote digital transformation,combine new technologies,and develop an innovative assessment method.This paper first parses the connotation of the national defense science and technology system,and then,designs a capability evaluation model,as well as indicators and methods based on the system’s concept and characteristics.Further,a system capability assessment framework is constructed using big data analysis,and policy suggestions are presented in addition to a route method for promoting the system’s capability assessment.The study shows that the model structure of the total capability index-domain-item of the national defense science and technology system can quantitatively evaluate the system capability.By integrating with traditional evaluation methods,the new system’s capability assessment based on big data analysis can effectively solve the problems of human costs and subjectivity in a traditional manner.To this end,it is recommended that a comprehensive evaluation and analysis platform for national defense science and technology system capabilities be constructed based on big data analysis;the platform can be used as a carrier to form a normalized evaluation and reporting mechanism,and actual assessment work that relies on third-party institutions can be conducted independently.All these suggestions will promote the high-quality development of the national defense science and technology system’s capacity.

关 键 词：大数据 体系评估方法 量化评估 

分 类 号：E252[军事—军事理论]