基于三参数威布尔分布模型的台风灾害损失研究  

Study of Typhoon Disaster Loss Based on Three-Parameter Weibull Distribution Model

作　　者：倪百秀 赵莉莉 王颍 李国成 NI Baixiu;ZHAO Lili;WANG Ying;LI Guocheng(School of Finance&Mathematics,West Anhui University,Lu’an 237012,China)

机构地区：[1]皖西学院金融与数学学院,安徽六安237012

出　　处：《安庆师范大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第3期53-58,共6页Journal of Anqing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：安徽省自然科学基金(2108085QG306);安徽省科技厅软科学研究项目(1607a0202027);安徽高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(SK2016A0971)。

摘　　要：设计台风灾害损失保险产品能够很好地解决灾害理赔问题,但需要对台风灾害损失的概率分布参数进行准确估计。为此,本文基于2003—2020年间我国台风灾害损失数据,利用极大似然估计法构建台风灾害损失的三参数威布尔分布的参数估计模型,并采用基于仿生学原理的蜜獾算法求解模型,得到较为精确的模型参数估计值,实现了对我国台风灾害损失概率分布的精准刻画。The design of typhoon disaster loss insurance products can well solve the problem of disaster compensation,but it is necessary to accurately estimate the probability distribution parameters of typhoon disaster loss.To this end,based on my country's typhoon disaster loss data from 2003 to 2020,this paper uses the maximum likelihood estimation method to con-struct a three-parameter Weibull distribution parameter estimation model for typhoon disaster loss.Finally,Honey Badger Al-gorithm based on bionics is employed to solve the proposed model.The results show that the parameter estimation obtained by the presented method is more accurate,which accurately describes the probability distribution of typhoon disaster loss in my country.

关 键 词：台风灾害损失 威布尔分布 参数估计 极大似然估计 蜜獾算法 

分 类 号：F840.64[经济管理—保险] O212.2[理学—概率论与数理统计]