现代经济增长理论的新思维——基于传统模型的扩展与中国实践  

The New Thoughts of Modern Economic Growth Theory——Based on the Extension of Traditional Model and Practice in China

作　　者：宗良[1] 时圆 赵廷辰 Zong Liang;Shi Yuan;Zhao Tingchen(Research Institute,Bank of China;Market Maker Department,Guoyuan Futures Co.LTD)

机构地区：[1]中国银行研究院 [2]国元期货有限公司做市商部

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2022年第8期15-23,共9页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：本文在回顾现代经济增长理论发展历程、剖析其局限性的基础上,阐述未来经济增长理论变革的新思维。本文将实际总产出的变化表示为市场因素与政府作用的加权之和,综合考虑政府作用在总需求和总供给两方面的影响,提出了动态的理性综合经济增长方程。利用我国改革开放后的宏观数据进行实证分析,实证结果显示,本文提出的动态增长方程能够较好地反映我国经济增长的实际路径,市场因素与政府作用在经济增长中的影响力基本相当,市场因素影响力略高于政府因素。进一步研究显示,在劳动力和资本增速放缓的情况下,我国政府可在鼓励科技创新、促进基础设施投资、提升居民平均受教育年限等方面发挥积极作用,为我国经济高质量发展注入更大动力。The paper reviews the literature of modern economic growth theory,analyzes the shortcomings of the previous papers and discusses the new thoughts of theory development.The paper expresses the gross output as the weighted sum of market and government.The influence of government on both total demand and total supply is taken into consideration,with the introduction of Dynamic Rational Synthesis Economic Growth Model.The paper does the empirical analysis with the macroeconomic data since the reform and opening up in China.The results indict that the macro data could be roughly consistent with the Dynamic Rational Synthesis Economic Growth Model.The market exposes a little bit more influence than the government on the economic growth.Looking forward,the Chinese government could have pivotal influence on encouraging science and technology innovation,improving infrastructure investment and increasing the average education years.

关 键 词：现代经济增长理论 新思维 理性综合经济增长模型 中国实践 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学] F830