人口老龄化对全球价值链地位的影响——基于中介效应的研究  

The Impact of Aging Population on the Status of Global Value Chain——A Study Based on Intermediary Effect

作　　者：邢孝兵[1] 李莹洁 XING Xiaobing;LI Yingjie(School of International Economics and Trade,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《信阳师范学院学报（哲学社会科学版）》2022年第5期38-44,共7页Journal of Xinyang Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：安徽省高校人文社会科学研究重大项目(SK2020ZD003);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目(ACYC2020042);安徽省社科规划办项目(AHSKY2018089)。

摘　　要：选取2000—2018年52个代表性国家的相关数据,研究了人口老龄化对一国全球价值链地位的影响及作用机制。研究结果表明,人口老龄化对该国全球价值链地位具有显著的负向影响。老龄化不利于技术创新,进而其对价值链地位产生负向影响;老龄化虽能促进产业结构升级,抵消一定的负向影响但抵消程度有限;老龄化能促进人力资本积累,但人力资本积累对价值链地位具有倒U型影响。The relevant data of 52 representative countries from 2000 to 2018 are selected to study the impact and mechanism of aging population on the status of a country’s global value chain. The findings suggest that aging population has a significant negative impact on the country’s global value chain position. Aging is not conducive to technological innovation, which in turn has a negative impact on the position of the value chain;Although aging can promote the upgrading of industrial structure and offset certain negative impacts, the degree of offset is limited;Aging can promote the accumulation of human capital, and the accumulation of human capital has an inverted U-shaped impact on the status of the value chain.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 全球价值链 价值链地位 中介效应 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济] F742