考虑灾害天气的线路安全风险评估及应用  

Line Safety Risk Assessment Considering Disastrous Weather and Its Application

作　　者：付聪 杨韵 钱峰 钟雅珊 左剑 李绥荣 FU Cong;YANG Yun;QIAN Feng;ZHONG Yashan;ZUO Jian;LI Suirong(Power Dispatching Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510699,China;Hangzhou Worui Power Technology Co.,Ltd.,Hangzhou,Zhejiang 310000,China)

机构地区：[1]广东电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心,广东广州510699 [2]杭州沃瑞电力科技有限公司,浙江杭州310000

出　　处：《广东电力》2022年第8期69-75,共7页Guangdong Electric Power

基　　金：中国南方电网有限责任公司科技项目(GDKJXM20190139)。

摘　　要：提出一种考虑灾害天气的电力系统风险量化评估算法和多重故障集自动生成方法。引入气象数据,建立灾害天气下线路安全风险的量化模型,使用线路的历史统计数据计算风险评估指标,该指标可用于量化故障危害程度。为了保证安全风险评估的实时性,提出一种多重故障集自动生成的方法。最后以广东电网为例,选取雷电、台风作为灾害天气样本,基于负荷损失进行风险指标计算,给出广东电网线路的风险指标,为运行人员提供灾害天气系统运行风险的直观认知和优化依据。A quantitative risk assessment algorithm of power system considering disastrous weathers and an automatic generation method of multiple fault sets is proposed in this paper.By introducing meteorological data,the paper establishes a quantitative model of line operation risk in disastrous weathers,and calculates the risk assessment indexes combined with the historical statistical data of the line,which can be used to quantify the degree of fault harm.In order to ensure the real-time evaluation,an automatic generation method of multiple fault sets is proposed.Finally,taking Guangdong power grid as an example,the paper selects lightning and typhoon as disaster weather samples,the risk indexes are calculated based on load loss,and the risk index of Guangdong power grid line is given to provide intuitive cognition and optimization basis of disaster weather system operation risk..

关 键 词：安全风险评估 故障集自动生成 设备停运模型 多重故障集自动生成 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]