两岸经济融合发展的当前困境与未来走向——兼论“有限脱钩”的缘起及影响  

On the Present Dilemma and the Future Trend of the Cross-Straits Economic Integration and Development

作　　者：盛九元[1] 罗海蓉 Sheng Jiuyuan;Luo Hairong

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院台湾研究中心,上海200020 [2]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所,上海200020

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2022年第4期17-28,共12页Taiwan Research Journal

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九届六中全会精神国家社科基金重大项目“党的十八大以来党领导贯彻‘一国两制’和推进祖国统一的实践与经验研究”(22ZDA123)。

摘　　要：自美国对华发起贸易战以来,在“有限脱钩”领域已经形成从理论指导到政策实践乃至实际运行的完整体系,既对中国科技与产业发展带来一定负面影响,也使两岸经济融合发展进程遭受严重冲击,导致两岸经济“有限脱钩”态势显现。考虑到两岸经济融合发展具有内在韧性,其他经济体尚不具备替代中国大陆提供完善产业配套的基础条件,即便台湾当局配合美方选边政策,试图弱化两岸经贸联系,依旧难以对抗市场需求为两岸经济合作带来的生机与活力,大陆仍有持续推进两岸经济融合发展的空间和条件。Since the United States launched the trade war with China, the Sino-US partial economic decoupling has evolved from theoretical guidance to real policies and practices, which negatively affects China’s technological and industrial developments. Not only does the Sino-US economic split bring serious challenges to the process of the cross-Straits economic integration and development, but it also leads to a trend of “partial decoupling” in the cross-Straits economic relations.Considering the resilience of the cross-Straits economic integration and the irreplaceable role of the mainland in providing comprehensive industrial support to Taiwan, this paper argues that even if the Taiwan authorities try to weaken the cross-Straits economic and trade ties, they won’t be able to reduce the huge market demand for the cross-Straits economic cooperation. There are considerable room and favorable conditions for further cross-Straits economic integration and development.

关 键 词：中美经济“有限脱钩” 两岸经贸合作 两岸经济融合发展 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]