新冠疫情、国内供应链冲击与省域经济发展  

COVID-19,Domestic Supply Chain and Provincial Economic Development

作　　者：张鹏杨 唐宜红[2] ZHANG Pengyang;TANG Yihong(School of Economics and Management,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;School of International Trade and Economics,University of International Business and Economics,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学经济与管理学院,北京100124 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029

出　　处：《财经论丛》2022年第9期14-24,共11页Collected Essays on Finance and Economics

基　　金：北京市教委社科计划项目(SM202110005013);北京工业大学国际科研合作种子基金项目(2021A17);国家自然科学基金项目(71803005,71903043)。

摘　　要：以新冠疫情期间“离鄂通道”关闭事件为切入点,本文考察湖北与各省的供应链关联短暂切断对各省经济冲击的影响。结果发现,湖北供应链切断使原来与湖北供应链关联越紧密的省份受到的经济冲击越大;从影响的差异性上看,湖北供应链的供给侧关联切断和直接供应链的切断对省域经济的负面影响更大;进一步的机制研究表明,各省与湖北供应链关联增强了它们之间的经济周期联动性,也造成与湖北供应链关联越紧密的省份遭受的经济冲击更大,尤其表现为各省与湖北的商品要素流动均强化了它们之间的经济周期联动。据此,本文的研究对推动实现国内供应链畅通和稳定具有重要的现实意义。With the “closure of the Hubei passageway” under the COVID-19 as the starting point,this paper investigates the impact of the temporary cut-off of the supply chain between Hubei and other provinces on the economic development of the provinces under the epidemic situation.The results of the study are as follows:The cut-off of Hubei’s domestic supply chain makes the provinces which are closely related to Hubei’s supply chain suffer greater economic decreases;The supply-side correlation and the direct supply chain in Hubei province have greater negative impact on the economy;From the aspect of mechanisms,the supply chain correlation between Hubei and other provinces will enhance the economic cycle linkage,which is the reason why those provinces with closer correlation with Hubei supply chain suffer great economic impact under the COVID-19.In particular,the commodity flow and the factor flow between Hubei and other provinces strengthen the linkage of the economic cycle.The research has important practical significance to promote the realization of smooth and stable domestic supply chain.

关 键 词：新冠疫情 国内供应链 经济周期联动 省域经济发展 

分 类 号：F71[经济管理—产业经济]