Spatio-temporal evolution and dynamic simulation of the urban resilience of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration  

京津冀城市韧性的时空演变特征及动态模拟研究

作　　者：MU Xufang FANG Chuanglin YANG Zhiqi 牟旭方;方创琳;杨智奇(Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing,100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100049,China)

机构地区：[1]Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,CAS,Beijing,100101,China [2]College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,100049,China

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2022年第9期1766-1790,共25页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：Innovation Research Group Project of National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42121001。

摘　　要：The continuous growth of urban agglomerations in China has increased their complexity as well as vulnerability. In this context, urban resilience is critical for the healthy and sustainable development of urban agglomerations. Focusing on the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) urban agglomeration, this study constructs an urban resilience evaluation system based on four subsystems: economy, society, infrastructure, and ecology. It uses the entropy method to measure the urban resilience of the BTH urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2018.Theil index, standard deviation ellipse, and gray prediction model GM(1,1) methods are used to examine the spatio-temporal evolution and dynamic simulation of urban resilience in this urban agglomeration. Our results show that the comprehensive evaluation index for urban resilience in the BTH urban agglomeration followed a steady upward trend from 2000 to 2018,with an average annual growth rate of 6.72%. There are significant differences in each subsystem’s contribution to urban resilience;overall, economic resilience is the main factor affecting urban resilience, with an average annual growth rate of 8.06%. Spatial differences in urban resilience in the BTH urban agglomeration have decreased from 2000 to 2018, showing the typical characteristic of being greater in the central core area and lower in the surrounding non-core areas. The level of urban resilience in the BTH urban agglomeration is forecast to continue increasing over the next ten years. However, there are still considerable differences between the cities. Policy factors will play a positive role in promoting the resilience level. Based on the evaluation results, corresponding policy recommendations are put forwar to provide scientific data support and a theoretical basis for the resilience construction of the BTH urban agglomeration.

关 键 词：urban agglomeration urban resilience Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH) evaluation system gray prediction model 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]