黄河流域城市PM_(2.5)时空异质及空间溢出效应研究  

Research on the Spatial-temporal Heterogeneity and Spatial Spillover Effect of Urban PM_(2.5)in the Yellow River Basin

作　　者：杨小林[1] 陈艺晏 李义玲[1] 陈昊[1] YANG Xiao-lin;CHEN Yi-yan;LI Yi-ling;CHEN Hao(Safety and Emergency Management Research Center,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454000,China)

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学安全与应急管理研究中心,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2022年第10期1208-1215,1223,共9页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:20BJY043);教育部社科规划基金项目(编号:17YJA820026)。

摘　　要：选择2000—2020年黄河流域69个地级市PM_(2.5)浓度相关监测数据,采用空间自相关模型和空间回归模型对流域PM_(2.5)污染时空特征和空间溢出效应进行分析。结果表明:①2000—2020年黄河流域城市年度PM_(2.5)浓度值呈“先升后降”的趋势,黄河流域PM_(2.5)污染呈“先恶化、后改善”的趋势。②黄河流域PM_(2.5)浓度年度均值为52.99μg/m^(3),其中,上游、中游和下游PM_(2.5)浓度年度均值分别为39.35μg/m^(3)、54.65μg/m^(3)、72.53μg/m^(3),表明黄河流域PM_(2.5)污染水平地理梯度分布呈“上游<中游<下游”的态势。③黄河流域PM_(2.5)污染具有显著的空间自相关性和空间聚集特征,下游已形成较为稳定的大气污染区,但流域PM_(2.5)污染水平空间极化程度不断降低,空气质量朝着空间均衡方向不断改善。④黄河流域城市PM_(2.5)污染空间溢出效应明显,年均气温、人口密度、工业化程度、人均GDP等因素与城市PM_(2.5)污染水平呈正向相关性,降水量、年均风速、植被覆盖度等因素与城市PM_(2.5)污染水平之间呈负向相关性。Taking the PM_(2.5)monitoring data of 69 cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020,this paper analyzed the spatial-temporal heterogeneity and spatial spillover effect of PM_(2.5)pollution by using the spatial autocorrelation model and spatial regression model.The results showed that:①From 2000 to 2020,the annual PM_(2.5)concentration in the Yellow River Basin showed a trend of“rising first and then falling”,indicating that the atmospheric PM_(2.5)pollution in the basin showed a trend of“first deterioration and then continuous improvement”.②The annual mean PM_(2.5)concentration in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 was 52.99μg/m^(3).And the annual mean concentrations of PM_(2.5)in the upstream,midstream and downstream were 39.35μg/m^(3),54.65μg/m^(3),and 72.53μg/m^(3),respectively,indicating that the geographical gradient distribution of PM_(2.5)pollution levels was in a situation of upstream<midstream<downstream.③PM_(2.5)pollution in the Yellow River Basin had significant spatial autocorrelation and spatial aggregation characteristics.A relatively stable and continuous air pollution area had formed in the downstream of Yellow River Basin,however,the degree of spatial polarization of PM_(2.5)pollution levels had continued to decrease,and the air quality had been continuously improved towards the direction of spatial equilibrium.④The spatial spillover effect of PM_(2.5)pollution in the Yellow River Basin was obvious.Factors such as average annual temperature,population density,degree of industrialization,and per capita GDP were positively correlated with urban PM_(2.5)pollution levels.On the contrary,the Factors of precipitation,annual average wind speed,vegetation coverage were negatively correlated with urban PM_(2.5)pollution levels.

关 键 词：黄河流域 PM_(2.5) 时空异质 空间自相关 影响因素 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]