新时期中国油气进口通道的风险与应对策略  

Risk for oil and gas import routes of China in the new era and its countermeasures

作　　者：梁萌 赵赏鑫 任重远[1] 彭盈盈 张奇 LIANG Meng;ZHAO Shangxin;REN Zhongyuan;PENG Yingying;ZHANG Qi(CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute;Construction Project Management Sub-Company,China Oil&Gas Pipeline Network Corporation;School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(Beijing))

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院 [2]国家石油天然气管网集团有限公司建设项目管理分公司 [3]中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院

出　　处：《油气储运》2022年第8期875-884,共10页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

摘　　要：新冠疫情与世界变局叠加,国际地缘秩序复杂多变,在碳中和背景下全球能源体系加速重构,稳定的能源进口对于国家能源安全意义重大。中国油气进口高度依赖海上通道并有加重之势,2019年海上通道贡献石油、天然气进口总量的90%、62%,进口增量的96%、100%;2020年中国石油、天然气进口量逆市增长,分别增加3651×10^(4)t、66×10^(8)m^(3),其中海上通道增量分别为3732×10^(4)t、93×10^(8)m^(3),弥补了陆上通道油气进口双下滑的缺口。海上通道的关键在南海航道,而当前南海地缘环境不确定性、不稳定性与日俱增,在中俄能源合作持续加深背景下,南海航道的石油供应压力有所缓解,但液化天然气进口量的增加提升了南海航道对中国天然气安全的重要性。受通道格局所限,中国应对南海航道突发风险的能力不足,以1年时间维度为基准,其他通道可用运力仅能应对南海航道石油、天然气中断5.2%、18.2%。基于能源地缘政治视角,从优化油气进口通道布局、强化过境国合作等方面提出建议,以期提升中国油气进口通道体系应急能力。As COVID-19 is superimposed with the great change of the world,the international geopolitical order is complex and changeable.The global energy system is reconstructed in an accelerating manner in the context of carbon neutrality,and stable energy imports are essential to ensure energy security of the state.China’s oil and gas imports are highly dependent on maritime route,yet such dependency tends to increase.In 2019,maritime route contributed 90%imported crude oil and 62%imported natural gas of China,and 96%of the increase in oil import and 100%of the increase in gas import.In 2020,China’s oil and gas imports continued growing,with the oil increased by 3651×10^(4)t and gas by 66×10^(8)m^(3),including an increasing of 3732×10^(4)t oil and 93×10^(8)m^(3)gas imported by sea,bridging the gap of the both decline of oil and gas imports by pipelines on the land.The key of maritime route lies in the South China Sea Shipping Lanes(SCSSL),while the uncertainty and instability of geopolitical environment in South China Sea are increasing at present.In the context of the continuous deepening of China‒Russia energy cooperation,the pressure on oil supply from SCSSL has been eased to some degree,but the increase of LNG import has raised the importance of SCSSL for China’s natural gas security.Limited to the routes structure,China has inadequate capability to respond to the sudden risk in SCSSL.Within one year dimension,the available capacity of routes other than SCSSL can only make up 5.2%and 18.2%of oil and natural gas under the condition with SCSSL interrupted.Therefore,suggestions were proposed to improve the emergency response capability for the oil and gas import routes system in terms of optimizing the layout of oil and gas import routes and strengthening the cooperation with oil and gas transit countries from the perspective of energy geopolitics.

关 键 词：能源通道 油气进口通道 南海航道 能源安全 石油安全 跨境运输 过境国合作 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]