基流分割对城市雨洪模拟不确定性分析的影响  

Impact of baseflow separation on uncertainty analysis of urban storm water simulation

作　　者：王京晶 徐宗学[1,2] 赵刚 李鹏 叶陈雷[1,2] 宋苏林 WANG Jingjing;XU Zongxue;ZHAO Gang;LI Peng;YE Chenlei;SONG Sulin(College of Water Sciences,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Hydrological Cycle and Sponge City Technology,Beijing 100875,China;School of Geographical Sciences,University of Bristol,Bristol BS81TH,UK;Jinan Hydrology Bureau,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室,北京100875 [3]布里斯托大学地理科学学院,英国布里斯托BS81TH [4]济南市水文局,山东济南250014

出　　处：《水资源保护》2022年第5期65-71,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1502701);城市水循环与海绵城市技术北京市重点实验室研究生创新基金(HYD2021IFMS01)。

摘　　要：为了探究基流分割对城市雨洪模拟的影响,以济南市主城区流域为例构建SWMM模型,采用2005—2010年7场基流分割前后的实测洪水资料校验模型,应用GLUE方法,以均方根误差为似然评判依据对模拟结果进行不确定性分析,探讨了基流分割前后流量数据对模拟结果不确定性的影响。结果表明:各场次暴雨基流占洪峰流量的比例均值为13.38%,对洪水模拟效果影响较大;GLUE方法能够有效提取高精度参数集,相比于原始流量序列,应用基流分割后流量作为校验模型依据,流量过程90%置信区间覆盖率增大100%,平均偏移幅度和平均对称度分别减小42.60%和87.19%。通过基流分割可有效降低流量数据作为模型校验数据导致的模拟结果不确定性,提升洪水预报性能,获取更精确对称的流量预报区间。In order to explore the impact of baseflow separation on the uncertainty analysis of urban storm water simulation,a storm water management model(SWMM)is developed taking downtown area of Jinan City as the study area.Observation data of 7 floods occurred during 2005 and 2010 before and after baseflow separation is used to calibrate and validate the model.The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation(GLUE)method with root mean squared error used as its basis is applied in uncertainty analysis for the simulation results.This paper also discusses the impact of whether data is collected before or after the baseflow separation on the uncertainty of simulation results.The results show that the average baseflow of rainstorms to peak discharge is 13.38%,which has a significant impact on flood process simulations.The GLUE method can effectively extract the parameter set with high precision.Discharge after the baseflow separation is more appealing as the basis for the verification of model compared with that before the baseflow separation,where 90% confidence interval of flood process is 100% higher,average offset amplitude is 42.60% lower and symmetry is 87.19% lower.The baseflow separation can effectively reduce the uncertainty of the simulation result,improve the performance of flood forecasting and help obtain flow forecast interval with more accuracy and symmetry.

关 键 词：基流分割 城市雨洪模拟 SWMM GLUE方法 不确定性分析 济南市 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]