中国设计暴雨量变化及其对降水变化的响应  

Changes of Design Rainstorms and Its Responses to Changing Precipitation in China

作　　者：吉戴婧琪 戈文艳 韩剑桥[1,2] 刘仪航 JI Dai-jing-qi;GE Wen-yan;HAN Jian-qiao;LIU Yi-hang(Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Northwest Agricultural and Forestry University,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi Province,China;Institute of Soil and Water Conservation,Chinese Academy and Sciences and Ministry of Water Resources,Yangling 712100,Shaanxi Province,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100 [2]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2022年第9期120-125,131,共7页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42177327);黄河水科学研究联合基金重点项目(U2243212,U2243213)。

摘　　要：为探究气候变化对水利工程防御洪水标准及其自身安全性的潜在威胁,根据639个站点的日值降雨数据,综合Pearson-III型曲线、最小二乘法及F检验等方法,研究了1958-2017年的中国设计暴雨量的变化及其对降水变化的响应。结果表明:(1)多年平均降水量、日最大降水量及不同重现期下的设计暴雨量在空间上均沿东南向西北逐渐减少。(2)华南、华中、西北和西南地区的多年平均降水量和日最大降水量均呈显著增加趋势(p<0.05),年降水量的增加速率分别为0.82、0.46、0.24和0.21 mm/a,而日最大降水量的增加速率为0.02~0.06 mm/a。(3)在20 a一遇的重现期下,华中、西北、西南地区的设计暴雨量呈显著增加趋势(p<0.05),增加速率分别为0.19、0.05和0.15 mm/a,华南(0.03 mm/a)和华东地区(0.10mm/a)呈不显著增加趋势。华北地区呈显著减少趋势(p<0.05),减少速率为-0.08 mm/a,而东北地区不显著减少(-0.03mm/a)。随重现期的增长,设计暴雨量的变化速率具有“增的愈增,减的愈减”的基本特征。(4)设计暴雨量变化与日最大降水量变化呈显著的正相关关系。在特定重现期下,设计暴雨量会随日最大降水量的增加而增加,可能造成工程实际防洪标准下降,亟需对已建工程的防御标准进行校核修订。研究结果可以为我国工程设计标准的更新及防洪减灾工作提供理论与实践支撑。To explore the threats to flood control standard and safety of hydro-engineering from climate change,based on the daily rainfall data of 639 stations during 1958-2017,the Pearson-III curve,least square method,F-test and other methods are adopted to study the change of design rainstorm and its response to precipitation changes in China.The results show that:(1) The annual precipitation,daily maximum precipitation and design rainstorm gradually decreased from southeast to northwest under different return periods.(2)The annual precipitation and daily maximum precipitation increased significantly in Southern,Central,Northwest and Southwest China(p<0.05).And the increasing rates of annual precipitation were 0.82,0.46,0.24 and 0.21 mm/a,while that of daily maximum precipitation ranged from 0.02 to 0.06 mm/a.(3) Under the 20-year return period,the design rainstorm increased significantly in Central,Northwest and Southwest China(p<0.05),and the increasing rates were 0.19,0.05 and 0.15 mm/a,while that in South China(0.03 mm/a)and East China(0.10 mm/a)showed no significant increasing trend.There was a significant decreasing trend of design rainstorm in North China(p<0.05),and the decreasing rate was-0.08 mm/a,while that in northeast China had no significant decreasing trend(-0.03 mm/a).With the return period,the change rate present“increasing more and more,decreasing more and more”.(4) There is a significant positive correlation between design rainstorm and average annual maximum daily rainfall.Under a certain return period,the design rainstorm will increase with the daily maximum precipitation,which may reduce the actual flood control standards.It is necessary to revise the defense standards of existing projects.The results can provide theoretical and practical support for engineering design standard revision,flood control and disaster reduction in China.

关 键 词：日最大降水量 设计暴雨量 Pearson-III型曲线 重现期 中国 

分 类 号：TV12[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P333[天文地球—水文科学]